The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake

1,000Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

adam.arbess

2024 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

56%

beat the slot

Smashes

44%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+248

useful pts

Per pick

+15.5

Best pick

+92

Saquon Barkley

Diagnosis

adam.arbess's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How adam.arbess gets better

The film room

The Saquon Barkley read

Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

TE is your blind spot

2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts

Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.24×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

1.91×

4 picks · 50% beat slot

1.70×

7 picks · 57% beat slot

0.80×

2 picks · 50% beat slot

3.23×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

0.86×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+178

4 picks · 100% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+72

5 picks · 60% hit

Late (R10+)

−2

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

Saquon Barkley

2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected

+92

Terry McLaurin

2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected

+44

Amon-Ra St. Brown

2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected

+41

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Kyle Pitts Sr.

2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected

−11

Brian Robinson Jr.

2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected

−11

Christian Watson

2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-79

Christian McCaffrey

Jack

1.02+7

CeeDee Lamb

David

1.03-61

Tyreek Hill

Brady

1.04-59

Breece Hall

jon

1.05-17

Bijan Robinson

adam

1.06-19

Justin Jefferson

Josh

1.07+41

Amon-Ra St. Brown

adam.arbess

1.08+102

Ja'Marr Chase

oren

1.09-8

Garrett Wilson

Ben

1.10+12

A.J. Brown

sam

2.01-52

Jahmyr Gibbs

sam

2.02-34

Jonathan Taylor

Ben

2.03-2

Kyren Williams

oren

2.04+92

Saquon Barkley

adam.arbess

2.05+19

Derrick Henry

Josh

2.06+10

Puka Nacua

adam

2.07-34

Davante Adams

jon

2.08-24

De'Von Achane

Brady

2.09+18

Drake London

David

2.10-35

Isiah Pacheco

Jack

3.01+1

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Jack

3.02-35

Travis Etienne Jr.

David

3.03+10

Nico Collins

Brady

3.04-24

Chris Olave

jon

3.05-9

Mike Evans

adam

3.06+34

Cooper Kupp

adam.arbess

3.07-33

Brandon Aiyuk

Josh

3.08-27

Michael Pittman Jr.

oren

3.09+5

Travis Kelce

Ben

3.10-15

Josh Jacobs

sam

4.01-18

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Brady

4.02-4

Josh Allen

Ben

4.03-11

Sam LaPorta

oren

4.04-27

Jaylen Waddle

Josh

4.05+12

Joe Mixon

adam.arbess

4.06-29

Rachaad White

adam

4.070

James Cook III

jon

4.08-7

DeVonta Smith

Brady

4.09-19

DJ Moore

David

4.10+2

DK Metcalf

Jack

5.01-7

Kenneth Walker III

Jack

5.02+16

Trey McBride

David

5.03+13

Jalen Hurts

sam

5.04+23

Alvin Kamara

jon

5.05-17

Stefon Diggs

adam

5.06+35

Malik Nabers

adam.arbess

5.07+62

Lamar Jackson

Josh

5.08-3

Rashee Rice

oren

5.09-15

Aaron Jones Sr.

Ben

5.10+18

Zay Flowers

sam

6.01+57

George Kittle

sam

6.02-27

Keenan Allen

Ben

6.03-16

James Conner

oren

6.04+2

Amari Cooper

Josh

6.05+44

Terry McLaurin

adam.arbess

6.06-12

Tank Dell

adam

6.07-22

Patrick Mahomes

jon

6.08-21

Mark Andrews

Brady

6.09+37

Tee Higgins

David

6.10-1

George Pickens

Jack

7.01-12

Dalton Kincaid

Jack

7.02-5

David Montgomery

David

7.03-4

Rhamondre Stevenson

sam

7.04-14

Evan Engram

jon

7.05-9

Anthony Richardson Sr.

adam

7.06-11

Kyle Pitts Sr.

adam.arbess

7.07-18

Zamir White

Josh

7.08-4

Calvin Ridley

oren

7.09-9

Tony Pollard

Ben

7.10-9

Christian Kirk

sam

8.01+14

Chris Godwin Jr.

sam

8.02+14

Jayden Daniels

Ben

8.03-6

C.J. Stroud

oren

8.04+1

Diontae Johnson

Josh

8.05+15

Kyler Murray

adam.arbess

8.06-9

Najee Harris

adam

8.07+22

Jayden Reed

jon

8.08-12

Javonte Williams

Brady

8.09+4

D'Andre Swift

David

8.10-12

Raheem Mostert

Jack

9.01-12

Jaylen Warren

Jack

9.02-12

Xavier Worthy

David

9.03-10

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Brady

9.04-11

Devin Singletary

jon

9.05-11

Rome Odunze

adam

9.06-11

Brian Robinson Jr.

adam.arbess

9.07-10

Tyjae Spears

Josh

9.08+1

Brian Thomas Jr.

oren

9.09-10

Jordan Addison

Ben

9.10+11

Chase Brown

Brady

10.01-9

Hollywood Brown

sam

10.02-10

Zack Moss

Ben

10.03-9

Jonathon Brooks

oren

10.04+3

Jake Ferguson

Josh

10.05-8

Christian Watson

adam.arbess

10.06+35

Courtland Sutton

adam

10.07-9

Keon Coleman

jon

10.08-9

Jerome Ford

Brady

10.09-7

Ladd McConkey

David

10.10+63

Joe Burrow

Jack

11.01+1

Jameson Williams

Jack

11.02+6

Dak Prescott

David

11.03+13

Jordan Love

Brady

11.04-8

Chuba Hubbard

jon

11.050

Nick Chubb

adam

11.06-2

Rico Dowdle

adam.arbess

11.07-7

Gus Edwards

Josh

11.08-6

Joshua Palmer

oren

11.09-7

DeAndre Hopkins

Ben

11.10-7

Tyler Lockett

sam

12.01-7

Ja'Lynn Polk

sam

12.02-7

Brock Bowers

Ben

12.03-6

Khalil Shakir

oren

12.04-6

Curtis Samuel

Josh

12.05+6

David Njoku

adam.arbess

12.06+17

Dallas Goedert

adam

12.07+6

Jerry Jeudy

jon

12.08-7

Jakobi Meyers

Brady

12.09-7

Mike Williams

David

12.10-8

Romeo Doubs

Jack

13.01-8

Dontayvion Wicks

Jack

13.02-8

Ezekiel Elliott

David

13.03-7

Cowboys

Brady

13.04-7

Ravens

jon

13.05+7

Justin Tucker

adam

13.06-8

Brandin Cooks

adam.arbess

13.07-4

Austin Ekeler

Josh

13.08-8

Blake Corum

oren

13.09-8

T.J. Hockenson

Ben

13.10+10

49ers

sam

14.01+43

Brandon Aubrey

sam

14.02-8

Ty Chandler

Ben

14.03-8

Trey Benson

oren

14.04+28

Zach Charbonnet

Josh

14.05-1

Browns

adam.arbess

14.06+15

Jets

adam

14.07-9

Caleb Williams

jon

14.08-8

Tyler Allgeier

Brady

14.09-8

Khalil Herbert

David

14.10-8

J.K. Dobbins

Jack

15.01-8

Elijah Mitchell

Jack

15.02+28

Steelers

David

15.03-8

Adonai Mitchell

Brady

15.04+6

Harrison Butker

jon

15.05-8

Luke Musgrave

adam

15.06+18

Jake Moody

adam.arbess

15.07-8

Jason Sanders

Josh

15.08-9

Jake Elliott

oren

15.09+1

Tyler Bass

Ben

15.10-7

Chiefs

sam

16.01-8

DeMario Douglas

sam

16.02-8

Eagles

Ben

16.03+26

Texans

oren

16.04-5

Dolphins

Josh

16.05-8

Rashid Shaheed

adam.arbess

16.06-7

Adam Thielen

adam

16.07-8

Dalton Schultz

jon

16.08-7

Younghoe Koo

Brady

16.09-7

Tua Tagovailoa

David

16.10+4

Seahawks

Jack

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2024

Best drafters in the league

01adam.arbess
A+
02sam
A
03oren
A-
04David
B
05Josh
B-
06adam
C+
07Jack
C-
08Ben
D+
09jon
D
10Brady
F

2024

League superlatives

The Oracle

adam.arbess

Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick

The Sniper

oren

Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5

Bargain Hunter

adam

Most value from rounds 10+ · +58

Boom or Bust

oren

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28

Steady Hand

Ben

Most consistent picks · σ 11

Dead Money

Jack

Worst first-round return · −80

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.46

The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Josh (A+)	2nd	sam (draft #3 of 10)
2024	adam.arbess (A+)	1st	adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10)
2023	oren (A+)	4th	Josh (draft #2 of 10)
2022	oren (A+)	10th	adam (draft #4 of 12)
2021	Josh (A+)	3rd	adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
Jack	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	DEF
David	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	QB
Brady	WR	RB	WR	WR		TE		RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	DEF	RB	WR	K
jon	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	QB	K	TE
adam	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	RB	TE	K	DEF	TE	WR
Josh	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
adam.arbess	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	DEF	K	WR
oren	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
Ben	WR	RB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	TE	TE	RB	K	DEF
sam	WR	RB	RB		QB	TE	RB	WR		WR	WR	WR	DEF	K	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 33 (≈ R4)	92	27–164
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	67	1–169
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	71	1–178
TE	pick 16 (≈ R2)	82	5–180
K	pick 121 (≈ R13)	147	107–180
DEF	pick 114 (≈ R12)	145	87–179