The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake

1,000Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

adam.arbess

2024 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

56%

beat the slot

Smashes

44%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+248

useful pts

Per pick

+15.5

Best pick

+92

Saquon Barkley

Diagnosis

adam.arbess's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How adam.arbess gets better

The film room

The Saquon Barkley read

Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

TE is your blind spot

2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts

Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.24×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

1.91×

4 picks · 50% beat slot

1.70×

7 picks · 57% beat slot

0.80×

2 picks · 50% beat slot

3.23×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

0.86×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+178

4 picks · 100% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+72

5 picks · 60% hit

Late (R10+)

−2

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

Saquon Barkley

2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected

+92

Terry McLaurin

2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected

+44

Amon-Ra St. Brown

2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected

+41

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Kyle Pitts Sr.

2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected

−11

Brian Robinson Jr.

2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected

−11

Christian Watson

2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-26

Christian McCaffrey

1.02-9

Dalvin Cook

Brady

1.03-15

Alvin Kamara

adam

1.04-18

Ezekiel Elliott

jon

1.05-1

Derrick Henry

Jack

1.06-56

Saquon Barkley

oren

1.07-55

Nick Chubb

adam.arbess

1.08+47

Travis Kelce

sam

1.09+58

Davante Adams

Josh

1.10+11

Aaron Jones Sr.

Cooper

1.11+60

Austin Ekeler

David

1.12+43

Tyreek Hill

Ben

2.01-49

Jonathan Taylor

Ben

2.02-52

Stefon Diggs

David

2.03-29

DK Metcalf

Cooper

2.04-14

Antonio Gibson

Josh

2.05-38

DeAndre Hopkins

adam.arbess

2.06-36

Calvin Ridley

Jack

2.07+28

Najee Harris

oren

2.08-21

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

sam

2.09-8

Justin Jefferson

jon

2.10-1

A.J. Brown

adam

2.11-2

Darren Waller

Brady

2.12+49

Joe Mixon

3.01-20

Terry McLaurin

3.02+28

Keenan Allen

Brady

3.03-30

Chris Carson

adam

3.04-30

Allen Robinson

jon

3.05+35

Patrick Mahomes

sam

3.06+32

CeeDee Lamb

oren

3.07+21

David Montgomery

Jack

3.08+75

Josh Allen

adam.arbess

3.09-2

James Robinson

Josh

3.10+24

Mike Evans

Cooper

3.11+51

George Kittle

David

3.12-11

Amari Cooper

Ben

4.01+14

D'Andre Swift

Ben

4.02-32

Miles Sanders

David

4.03+16

Lamar Jackson

Cooper

4.04+162

Cooper Kupp

Josh

4.05-37

Robert Woods

adam.arbess

4.06+17

Tyler Lockett

Jack

4.07+29

Chris Godwin Jr.

oren

4.08+28

Diontae Johnson

sam

4.09+0

DJ Moore

jon

4.10-34

Julio Jones

adam

4.11+1

Kyler Murray

Brady

4.12-9

T.J. Hockenson

5.01-28

Jerry Jeudy

5.02-21

Darrell Henderson Jr.

Brady

5.03+6

Kyle Pitts Sr.

adam

5.04-27

Damien Harris

jon

5.05-5

Adam Thielen

sam

5.06-14

Mark Andrews

oren

5.07-23

Gus Edwards

Jack

5.08-23

Myles Gaskin

adam.arbess

5.09-2

Josh Jacobs

Josh

5.10-22

Mike Davis

Cooper

5.11-20

Tee Higgins

David

5.12-12

Odell Beckham Jr.

Ben

6.01+26

Aaron Rodgers

Ben

6.02-17

Brandon Aiyuk

David

6.03-1

Chase Claypool

Cooper

6.04+26

Dak Prescott

Josh

6.05-18

Javonte Williams

adam.arbess

6.06-7

Russell Wilson

Jack

6.07-18

Robbie Chosen

oren

6.08+9

Chase Edmonds

sam

6.09-17

Logan Thomas

jon

6.10-15

Kareem Hunt

adam

6.11+5

Courtland Sutton

Brady

6.12+77

Justin Herbert

7.01-13

Ronald Jones

7.02-13

Raheem Mostert

Brady

7.03-2

Melvin Gordon III

adam

7.04+38

Jalen Hurts

jon

7.05-4

Tyler Boyd

sam

7.06-11

JuJu Smith-Schuster

oren

7.07-12

Trey Sermon

Jack

7.08-10

Robert Tonyan

adam.arbess

7.09-5

Tyler Higbee

Josh

7.10+28

Dallas Goedert

Cooper

7.11-10

Kenny Golladay

David

7.12+10

Corey Davis

Ben

8.01-11

James Conner

Ben

8.02-11

Leonard Fournette

David

8.03+4

Rams

Cooper

8.04-9

Zack Moss

Josh

8.05+32

Michael Pittman Jr.

adam.arbess

8.06+27

Antonio Brown

Jack

8.07-9

Michael Thomas

oren

8.08+49

Brandin Cooks

sam

8.09-9

Kenyan Drake

jon

8.10+84

Deebo Samuel Sr.

adam

8.11+2

DeVonta Smith

Brady

8.12+7

Ja'Marr Chase

9.01-9

AJ Dillon

9.02-9

Marquez Callaway

Brady

9.03-9

DJ Chark

adam

9.04-8

Curtis Samuel

jon

9.05-8

Tyrell Williams

sam

9.06-8

Sony Michel

oren

9.07-8

Michael Carter

Jack

9.08-8

Jamaal Williams

adam.arbess

9.09-8

Laviska Shenault Jr.

Josh

9.10-7

Devin Singletary

Cooper

9.11+73

Tom Brady

David

9.12-6

Will Fuller V

Ben

10.01+14

Noah Fant

Ben

10.02-1

Mike Williams

David

10.03-7

Michael Gallup

Cooper

10.04-7

Jakobi Meyers

Josh

10.05-6

Ryan Tannehill

adam.arbess

10.06-6

Matthew Stafford

Jack

10.07-2

Kirk Cousins

oren

10.08-6

J.D. McKissic

sam

10.09-5

Nyheim Miller-Hines

jon

10.10+37

Jaylen Waddle

adam

10.11-7

Phillip Lindsay

Brady

10.12-8

Jarvis Landry

11.01+25

Justin Tucker

11.02+10

Alexander Mattison

Brady

11.030

Joe Burrow

adam

11.04-2

Hollywood Brown

jon

11.05-8

Jamison Crowder

sam

11.06-8

Trevor Lawrence

oren

11.07-8

Mike Gesicki

Jack

11.08-8

Darnell Mooney

adam.arbess

11.09-8

Carlos Hyde

Josh

11.10-2

Harrison Butker

Cooper

11.11+1

Younghoe Koo

David

11.120

DeVante Parker

Ben

12.01+26

Buccaneers

Ben

12.02-8

Marvin Jones Jr.

David

12.03-8

Jonnu Smith

Cooper

12.04-6

Commanders

Josh

12.05-9

Gerald Everett

adam.arbess

12.06-3

Tony Pollard

Jack

12.07+8

Steelers

oren

12.08+13

Ravens

sam

12.09+5

49ers

jon

12.10-8

James White

adam

12.11-8

Elijah Moore

Brady

12.12-8

Austin Hooper

13.01+41

Bills

13.02+1

Colts

Brady

13.03+18

Tyler Bass

adam

13.04-9

Henry Ruggs III

jon

13.05-4

Sterling Shepard

sam

13.06-8

David Johnson

oren

13.07+4

Browns

Jack

13.08+6

Greg Zuerlein

adam.arbess

13.09-7

Mecole Hardman Jr.

Josh

13.10-7

Matt Ryan

Cooper

13.11-8

Jameis Winston

David

13.12-6

Randall Cobb

Ben

14.01-8

Cole Beasley

Ben

14.02-7

Boston Scott

David

14.03-7

Tevin Coleman

Cooper

14.04-7

Russell Gage Jr.

Josh

14.05-7

Nelson Agholor

adam.arbess

14.06-5

Rashod Bateman

Jack

14.07-7

Deshaun Watson

oren

14.08-7

Trey Lance

sam

14.09+1

Rob Gronkowski

jon

14.10+71

Patriots

adam

14.11-7

Bryan Edwards

Brady

14.12-1

Emmanuel Sanders

15.01-7

Malcolm Brown

15.02-7

Jason Sanders

Brady

15.03-7

Rondale Moore

adam

15.04+6

Rodrigo Blankenship

jon

15.05+13

Ryan Succop

sam

15.06+40

Daniel Carlson

oren

15.07-6

Jason Myers

Jack

15.08-7

Chiefs

adam.arbess

15.09-4

Robbie Gould

Josh

15.10-7

Terrace Marshall Jr.

Cooper

15.11+12

Broncos

David

15.12+25

Matt Gay

Ben

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2024

Best drafters in the league

01adam.arbess
A+
02sam
A
03oren
A-
04David
B
05Josh
B-
06adam
C+
07Jack
C-
08Ben
D+
09jon
D
10Brady
F

2024

League superlatives

The Oracle

adam.arbess

Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick

The Sniper

oren

Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5

Bargain Hunter

adam

Most value from rounds 10+ · +58

Boom or Bust

oren

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28

Steady Hand

Ben

Most consistent picks · σ 11

Dead Money

Jack

Worst first-round return · −80

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.46

The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Josh (A+)	2nd	sam (draft #3 of 10)
2024	adam.arbess (A+)	1st	adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10)
2023	oren (A+)	4th	Josh (draft #2 of 10)
2022	oren (A+)	10th	adam (draft #4 of 12)
2021	Josh (A+)	3rd	adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
Jack	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	DEF
David	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	QB
Brady	WR	RB	WR	WR		TE		RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	DEF	RB	WR	K
jon	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	QB	K	TE
adam	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	RB	TE	K	DEF	TE	WR
Josh	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
adam.arbess	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	DEF	K	WR
oren	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
Ben	WR	RB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	TE	TE	RB	K	DEF
sam	WR	RB	RB		QB	TE	RB	WR		WR	WR	WR	DEF	K	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 33 (≈ R4)	92	27–164
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	67	1–169
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	71	1–178
TE	pick 16 (≈ R2)	82	5–180
K	pick 121 (≈ R13)	147	107–180
DEF	pick 114 (≈ R12)	145	87–179