The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake

1,000Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

adam.arbess

2024 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

56%

beat the slot

Smashes

44%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+248

useful pts

Per pick

+15.5

Best pick

+92

Saquon Barkley

Diagnosis

adam.arbess's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How adam.arbess gets better

The film room

The Saquon Barkley read

Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

TE is your blind spot

2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts

Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.24×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

1.91×

4 picks · 50% beat slot

1.70×

7 picks · 57% beat slot

0.80×

2 picks · 50% beat slot

3.23×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

0.86×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+178

4 picks · 100% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+72

5 picks · 60% hit

Late (R10+)

−2

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

Saquon Barkley

2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected

+92

Terry McLaurin

2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected

+44

Amon-Ra St. Brown

2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected

+41

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Kyle Pitts Sr.

2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected

−11

Brian Robinson Jr.

2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected

−11

Christian Watson

2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-35

Justin Jefferson

adam.arbess

1.02+15

Ja'Marr Chase

oren

1.03+112

Christian McCaffrey

Josh

1.04+85

Tyreek Hill

Jack

1.05-78

Travis Kelce

jon

1.06-60

Austin Ekeler

adam

1.07-21

Cooper Kupp

David

1.08+15

Stefon Diggs

Brady

1.09-37

Bijan Robinson

Ben

1.10-3

Saquon Barkley

sam

2.01-53

Nick Chubb

jon

2.02-12

Tony Pollard

Ben

2.03-19

Davante Adams

Brady

2.04+42

CeeDee Lamb

David

2.05+5

Derrick Henry

adam

2.06+41

A.J. Brown

sam

2.07-22

Garrett Wilson

Jack

2.08+72

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Josh

2.09-2

Jaylen Waddle

oren

2.10+5

Josh Jacobs

adam.arbess

3.01-26

Rhamondre Stevenson

adam.arbess

3.02-14

Jonathan Taylor

oren

3.03-21

Chris Olave

Josh

3.04+14

DeVonta Smith

Jack

3.05-19

Tee Higgins

jon

3.06+21

Joe Mixon

adam

3.07+44

Travis Etienne Jr.

David

3.08-28

Najee Harris

Brady

3.09+17

Calvin Ridley

Ben

3.10+45

Jahmyr Gibbs

sam

4.01-24

Patrick Mahomes

jon

4.02-13

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Ben

4.03+24

Josh Allen

Brady

4.04+12

Mark Andrews

David

4.05+17

DK Metcalf

adam

4.06-29

Jalen Hurts

sam

4.07-13

Aaron Jones Sr.

Jack

4.08+29

Amari Cooper

Josh

4.09+31

Lamar Jackson

oren

4.10-34

J.K. Dobbins

adam.arbess

5.01+46

DJ Moore

adam.arbess

5.02+5

Kenneth Walker III

oren

5.03-39

Alexander Mattison

Josh

5.04+24

Breece Hall

Jack

5.05+43

T.J. Hockenson

sam

5.06+79

Keenan Allen

adam

5.07-29

Miles Sanders

David

5.08-29

Dameon Pierce

Brady

5.09-19

Tyler Lockett

Ben

5.10-30

Cam Akers

jon

6.01-9

Drake London

sam

6.02-5

Justin Fields

Ben

6.03+29

Brandon Aiyuk

Brady

6.04-21

Christian Watson

David

6.05-9

DeAndre Hopkins

adam

6.06-23

Terry McLaurin

sam

6.07-12

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Jack

6.08-18

James Conner

Josh

6.09+28

D'Andre Swift

oren

6.10+35

James Cook III

adam.arbess

7.01-3

Darren Waller

adam.arbess

7.02+19

Michael Pittman Jr.

oren

7.03-17

Chris Godwin Jr.

Josh

7.04-13

Javonte Williams

Jack

7.05+45

Mike Evans

sam

7.06-17

Dalvin Cook

adam

7.07-7

Joe Burrow

David

7.08-9

Rachaad White

Brady

7.09-4

Mike Williams

Ben

7.10+6

Christian Kirk

jon

8.01-14

Alvin Kamara

sam

8.02-3

Dallas Goedert

Ben

8.03+10

George Kittle

Brady

8.04+10

David Montgomery

David

8.05+4

George Pickens

adam

8.06-10

Hollywood Brown

sam

8.07-12

Jahan Dotson

Jack

8.08-11

Isiah Pacheco

Josh

8.09+6

Evan Engram

oren

8.10-12

Khalil Herbert

adam.arbess

9.01-12

Jerry Jeudy

adam.arbess

9.02+11

Jordan Addison

oren

9.03-9

Pat Freiermuth

Josh

9.04+19

Justin Herbert

Jack

9.05-11

Diontae Johnson

jon

9.06-11

Jamaal Williams

adam

9.07-6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

David

9.08-9

Michael Thomas

Brady

9.09-10

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Ben

9.10-10

Brian Robinson Jr.

jon

10.01-4

Gabe Davis

jon

10.02-10

D'Onta Foreman

Ben

10.03-9

Antonio Gibson

Brady

10.04-8

AJ Dillon

David

10.05-3

Dalton Kincaid

adam

10.06-9

Brandin Cooks

sam

10.07-6

Zach Charbonnet

Jack

10.08-4

Trevor Lawrence

Josh

10.09-9

Quentin Johnston

oren

10.10-8

Elijah Moore

adam.arbess

11.01-5

Zay Flowers

adam.arbess

11.02-8

Jerick McKinnon

oren

11.03-8

Nico Collins

Josh

11.04-8

Samaje Perine

Jack

11.05-8

Rashod Bateman

jon

11.06-7

Tyler Allgeier

adam

11.07-7

Treylon Burks

David

11.08-6

Courtland Sutton

Brady

11.09-7

Elijah Mitchell

Ben

11.10-7

Kenny Gainwell

jon

12.01-7

Adam Thielen

jon

12.02-7

Odell Beckham Jr.

Ben

12.03-6

Skyy Moore

Brady

12.04-6

Jameson Williams

David

12.05+65

Dak Prescott

adam

12.06-6

David Njoku

sam

12.07-7

Kadarius Toney

Jack

12.08-3

Jakobi Meyers

Josh

12.09-7

Jeff Wilson Jr.

oren

12.10-8

Rashaad Penny

adam.arbess

13.01+25

49ers

adam.arbess

13.02+58

Sam LaPorta

oren

13.03+34

Justin Tucker

Josh

13.04-7

Jaylen Warren

Jack

13.05-5

Eagles

sam

13.06-8

Jalin Hyatt

adam

13.07-8

Tank Bigsby

David

13.08-8

Damien Harris

Brady

13.09-4

Romeo Doubs

Ben

13.10-9

Anthony Richardson Sr.

jon

14.01+35

Bills

jon

14.02-8

Dalton Schultz

Ben

14.03-8

Darnell Mooney

Brady

14.04+73

Cowboys

David

14.05+17

Evan McPherson

adam

14.06-8

Rashee Rice

sam

14.07-9

Raheem Mostert

Jack

14.08-8

De'Von Achane

Josh

14.09+27

Steelers

oren

14.100

Deshaun Watson

adam.arbess

15.01+13

Harrison Butker

adam.arbess

15.02+5

Zack Moss

oren

15.03-8

Allen Lazard

Josh

15.04-8

Broncos

Jack

15.05+0

Tyler Boyd

sam

15.06-7

Patriots

adam

15.07+17

Tyler Bass

David

15.08-8

Younghoe Koo

Brady

15.09-7

Jason Myers

Ben

15.10-8

Daniel Carlson

jon

16.01-8

Ezekiel Elliott

jon

16.02+18

Jets

Ben

16.03-5

Saints

Brady

16.04-7

Marvin Mims Jr.

David

16.05-8

Michael Gallup

adam

16.06+4

Riley Patterson

sam

16.07+1

Jason Sanders

Jack

16.08-7

Bengals

Josh

16.09+5

Chris Boswell

oren

16.10-7

Jonathan Mingo

adam.arbess

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2024

Best drafters in the league

01adam.arbess
A+
02sam
A
03oren
A-
04David
B
05Josh
B-
06adam
C+
07Jack
C-
08Ben
D+
09jon
D
10Brady
F

2024

League superlatives

The Oracle

adam.arbess

Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick

The Sniper

oren

Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5

Bargain Hunter

adam

Most value from rounds 10+ · +58

Boom or Bust

oren

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28

Steady Hand

Ben

Most consistent picks · σ 11

Dead Money

Jack

Worst first-round return · −80

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.46

The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Josh (A+)	2nd	sam (draft #3 of 10)
2024	adam.arbess (A+)	1st	adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10)
2023	oren (A+)	4th	Josh (draft #2 of 10)
2022	oren (A+)	10th	adam (draft #4 of 12)
2021	Josh (A+)	3rd	adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
Jack	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	DEF
David	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	QB
Brady	WR	RB	WR	WR		TE		RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	DEF	RB	WR	K
jon	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	QB	K	TE
adam	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	RB	TE	K	DEF	TE	WR
Josh	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
adam.arbess	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	DEF	K	WR
oren	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
Ben	WR	RB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	TE	TE	RB	K	DEF
sam	WR	RB	RB		QB	TE	RB	WR		WR	WR	WR	DEF	K	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 33 (≈ R4)	92	27–164
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	67	1–169
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	71	1–178
TE	pick 16 (≈ R2)	82	5–180
K	pick 121 (≈ R13)	147	107–180
DEF	pick 114 (≈ R12)	145	87–179