The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
adam.arbess
2024 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 10
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
44%
top 15% picks
Busts
0%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+248
useful pts
Per pick
+15.5
Best pick
+92
Saquon Barkley
01
Diagnosis
adam.arbess's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How adam.arbess gets better
The film room
The Saquon Barkley read
Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
RB is your money position
4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
TE is your blind spot
2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts
Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.24×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
1.91×
4 picks · 50% beat slot
WR
1.70×
7 picks · 57% beat slot
TE
0.80×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
K
3.23×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.86×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+178
4 picks · 100% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+72
5 picks · 60% hit
Late (R10+)
−2
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
RB+92
Saquon Barkley
2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected
WR+44
Terry McLaurin
2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected
WR+41
Amon-Ra St. Brown
2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
TE−11
Kyle Pitts Sr.
2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected
RB−11
Brian Robinson Jr.
2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected
WR−9
Christian Watson
2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01+38
Ja'Marr Chase
Jack
1.02+87
Bijan Robinson
sam
1.03-65
Saquon Barkley
adam.arbess
1.04-51
Jahmyr Gibbs
David
1.05-53
Justin Jefferson
jon
1.06+100
Christian McCaffrey
Brady
1.07-6
CeeDee Lamb
Ben
1.08+67
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh
1.09-1
Nico Collins
oren
1.10-30
Malik Nabers
adam
2.01-59
Brian Thomas Jr.
adam
2.02+116
Puka Nacua
oren
2.03+16
Josh Jacobs
Josh
2.04-31
Derrick Henry
Ben
2.05+47
De'Von Achane
Brady
2.06-35
Drake London
jon
2.07-3
Ashton Jeanty
David
2.08-33
A.J. Brown
adam.arbess
2.09-35
Ladd McConkey
Brady
2.10-19
Bucky Irving
Jack
3.01-36
Chase Brown
Jack
3.02+118
Jonathan Taylor
sam
3.03-29
Brock Bowers
adam.arbess
3.04+18
Tee Higgins
David
3.05+58
James Cook III
jon
3.06-30
Kyren Williams
adam.arbess
3.07-4
Lamar Jackson
Ben
3.08-10
Omarion Hampton
Josh
3.09+62
Josh Allen
oren
3.10-17
Kenneth Walker III
adam
4.01-31
Trey McBride
adam
4.02-28
Alvin Kamara
oren
4.03+130
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Josh
4.04-28
Jayden Daniels
Brady
4.05-21
Tyreek Hill
sam
4.06-3
Jalen Hurts
jon
4.07+2
Garrett Wilson
David
4.08-35
Mike Evans
Ben
4.09-20
Marvin Harrison Jr.
sam
4.10+13
TreVeyon Henderson
Jack
5.01+20
George Kittle
Jack
5.02-30
Davante Adams
sam
5.03+5
Tetairoa McMillan
Brady
5.04-39
Terry McLaurin
David
5.05-31
Breece Hall
jon
5.06+79
George Pickens
Jack
5.07+19
Courtland Sutton
adam.arbess
5.08-25
Chuba Hubbard
Josh
5.09-2
DK Metcalf
oren
5.10-30
Joe Burrow
adam
6.01-28
James Conner
adam
6.02+14
D'Andre Swift
oren
6.03-23
Calvin Ridley
Josh
6.04-16
DeVonta Smith
Ben
6.05-2
RJ Harvey
Ben
6.06-18
Xavier Worthy
jon
6.07-23
David Montgomery
David
6.08-23
DJ Moore
Ben
6.09-20
Tony Pollard
sam
6.10-19
Zay Flowers
sam
7.01+10
Rome Odunze
Jack
7.02+43
Rashee Rice
sam
7.03-17
Isiah Pacheco
adam.arbess
7.04-19
Jameson Williams
David
7.05-18
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
jon
7.06-17
Kaleb Johnson
Ben
7.07-18
Travis Hunter
Brady
7.08+20
Emeka Egbuka
Josh
7.090
Ricky Pearsall
oren
7.10+21
Jaylen Waddle
adam
8.01-10
Chris Olave
adam
8.02+19
Tyler Warren
oren
8.03-2
Jordan Mason
Josh
8.04-9
Matthew Golden
adam.arbess
8.05-10
Jerry Jeudy
Brady
8.06-8
Sam LaPorta
jon
8.07-2
Jakobi Meyers
David
8.08-10
Travis Etienne Jr.
adam.arbess
8.09-12
Jordan Addison
Brady
8.10-12
Stefon Diggs
sam
9.01-9
Aaron Jones Sr.
Jack
9.02-12
David Njoku
sam
9.03-10
Cooper Kupp
adam.arbess
9.04-4
T.J. Hockenson
David
9.05+28
Javonte Williams
jon
9.06-11
Colston Loveland
Brady
9.07+6
Tucker Kraft
Ben
9.08-9
Zach Charbonnet
Josh
9.09-10
Jaylen Warren
oren
9.10-10
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
adam
10.01-9
Deebo Samuel Sr.
adam
10.02+15
Travis Kelce
oren
10.03-9
Evan Engram
Josh
10.04-7
Michael Pittman Jr.
Ben
10.05-8
Josh Downs
Brady
10.06-9
Jayden Reed
jon
10.07-9
Khalil Shakir
David
10.08-9
Keon Coleman
adam.arbess
10.09-9
Jauan Jennings
sam
10.10+39
Patrick Mahomes
Jack
11.01-8
Chris Godwin Jr.
Jack
11.02-8
J.K. Dobbins
sam
11.03+4
Baker Mayfield
adam.arbess
11.04-8
Kyler Murray
David
11.05-8
Tank Bigsby
jon
11.06-7
Rashid Shaheed
Ben
11.07+54
Brandon Aubrey
Ben
11.08-6
Braelon Allen
Josh
11.09-7
Brandon Aiyuk
oren
11.10-7
Bhayshul Tuten
adam
12.01-7
Joe Mixon
adam
12.02-7
Austin Ekeler
oren
12.03+19
Justin Herbert
Josh
12.04+23
Cam Skattebo
Brady
12.05-5
Brian Robinson Jr.
Brady
12.06-6
Rashod Bateman
jon
12.07-7
Christian Kirk
David
12.08-7
Darnell Mooney
adam.arbess
12.09-2
Rhamondre Stevenson
Jack
12.10-2
Dak Prescott
Jack
13.01-8
Dylan Sampson
Jack
13.02-8
Quinshon Judkins
sam
13.03-4
Mark Andrews
adam.arbess
13.04-7
Bo Nix
David
13.05-8
Ray Davis
jon
13.06-8
Ollie Gordon II
Brady
13.07-8
Najee Harris
Ben
13.08-8
Jayden Higgins
Josh
13.09-8
Luther Burden III
oren
13.10+18
Cameron Dicker
adam
14.01+16
Broncos
adam
14.02+21
Chris Boswell
oren
14.03+12
Jake Bates
Josh
14.04+16
Keenan Allen
Ben
14.05-8
Cardinals
Brady
14.06+23
Ka'imi Fairbairn
jon
14.07-9
Jaydon Blue
David
14.08+5
Wil Lutz
adam.arbess
14.09-8
Eagles
sam
14.10-7
Woody Marks
Jack
15.01-8
Trey Benson
Jack
15.02-8
Brock Purdy
sam
15.03+3
Steelers
adam.arbess
15.04-3
Texans
David
15.05+11
Vikings
jon
15.06-8
Zach Ertz
Brady
15.07+5
Packers
Ben
15.08-1
Ravens
Josh
15.09-6
Bills
oren
15.10-8
Jerome Ford
adam
16.01-8
Nick Chubb
adam
16.02-8
Shedeur Sanders
oren
16.03+54
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Josh
16.04-7
Max Duggan
Ben
16.05-8
Will Reichard
Brady
16.06-7
Hollywood Brown
jon
16.07+7
Harrison Butker
David
16.08+7
Jordan Love
adam.arbess
16.09+25
Chase McLaughlin
sam
16.10-7
Younghoe Koo
Jack
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2024
Best drafters in the league
- 01adam.arbessA+
- 02samA
- 03orenA-
- 04DavidB
- 05JoshB-
- 06adamC+
- 07JackC-
- 08BenD+
- 09jonD
- 10BradyF
2024
League superlatives
The Oracle
adam.arbess
Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick
The Sniper
oren
Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
oren
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28
Steady Hand
Ben
Most consistent picks · σ 11
Dead Money
Jack
Worst first-round return · −80
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | RB | RB | QB | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF |
| David | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | RB | DEF | QB |
| Brady | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | DEF | RB | WR | K | ||
| jon | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | TE | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | QB | K | TE |
| adam | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | K | DEF | TE | WR |
| Josh | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF |
| adam.arbess | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | DEF | K | WR |
| oren | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF |
| Ben | WR | RB | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | RB | WR | TE | TE | RB | K | DEF |
| sam | WR | RB | RB | QB | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | DEF | K | DEF | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |