The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
adam.arbess
2024 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 10
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
44%
top 15% picks
Busts
0%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+248
useful pts
Per pick
+15.5
Best pick
+92
Saquon Barkley
01
Diagnosis
adam.arbess's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How adam.arbess gets better
The film room
The Saquon Barkley read
Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
RB is your money position
4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
TE is your blind spot
2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts
Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.24×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
1.91×
4 picks · 50% beat slot
WR
1.70×
7 picks · 57% beat slot
TE
0.80×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
K
3.23×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.86×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+178
4 picks · 100% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+72
5 picks · 60% hit
Late (R10+)
−2
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
RB+92
Saquon Barkley
2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected
WR+44
Terry McLaurin
2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected
WR+41
Amon-Ra St. Brown
2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
TE−11
Kyle Pitts Sr.
2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected
RB−11
Brian Robinson Jr.
2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected
WR−9
Christian Watson
2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-44
Jonathan Taylor
Jack
1.02+74
Christian McCaffrey
adam
1.03+91
Austin Ekeler
oren
1.04+65
Justin Jefferson
sam
1.05-9
Derrick Henry
jon
1.06+21
Cooper Kupp
Al
1.07+12
Ja'Marr Chase
Brady
1.08+2
Joe Mixon
David
1.09-4
Dalvin Cook
Ben
1.10-55
Najee Harris
Josh
1.11-59
Alvin Kamara
Benjamin
1.12-38
Davante Adams
adam.arbess
2.01-54
Stefon Diggs
adam.arbess
2.02-5
D'Andre Swift
Benjamin
2.03+110
Travis Kelce
Josh
2.04+15
Aaron Jones Sr.
Ben
2.05+17
CeeDee Lamb
David
2.06+39
Saquon Barkley
Brady
2.07+28
Nick Chubb
Al
2.08-30
Leonard Fournette
jon
2.09-1
Mike Evans
sam
2.10+49
Mark Andrews
oren
2.11-7
Deebo Samuel Sr.
adam
2.12-25
Javonte Williams
Jack
3.01+14
Tyreek Hill
Jack
3.02-25
James Conner
adam
3.03-33
Keenan Allen
oren
3.04-28
Ezekiel Elliott
sam
3.05-24
Tee Higgins
jon
3.06-1
A.J. Brown
Al
3.07-6
Travis Etienne Jr.
Brady
3.08-17
Kyle Pitts Sr.
David
3.09-5
Michael Pittman Jr.
Ben
3.10-32
Cam Akers
Josh
3.11-30
DJ Moore
Benjamin
3.12-34
J.K. Dobbins
adam.arbess
4.01-36
Chase Edmonds
adam.arbess
4.02+3
Mike Williams
Benjamin
4.03-34
Elijah Mitchell
Josh
4.04-35
AJ Dillon
Ben
4.05+58
Josh Allen
David
4.06-28
Courtland Sutton
Brady
4.07-40
David Montgomery
Al
4.08-28
Terry McLaurin
jon
4.09-34
Diontae Johnson
sam
4.10-27
Allen Robinson
oren
4.11+48
Jaylen Waddle
adam
4.12-23
Jerry Jeudy
Jack
5.01-13
Justin Herbert
Jack
5.02-30
Breece Hall
adam
5.03+86
Patrick Mahomes
oren
5.04+22
Lamar Jackson
sam
5.05+54
George Kittle
jon
5.06-11
Darren Waller
Al
5.07-16
Brandin Cooks
Brady
5.08+109
Josh Jacobs
David
5.09+60
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Ben
5.10-23
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Josh
5.11-18
Tom Brady
Benjamin
5.12+20
Gabe Davis
adam.arbess
6.01+82
Jalen Hurts
adam.arbess
6.02-1
Dallas Goedert
Benjamin
6.03+32
DK Metcalf
Josh
6.04+2
Kyler Murray
Ben
6.05+14
Hollywood Brown
David
6.06-17
Rashod Bateman
Brady
6.07-18
Rashaad Penny
Al
6.08-17
Elijah Moore
jon
6.09-17
Michael Thomas
sam
6.10-7
Damien Harris
oren
6.11+17
Amari Cooper
adam
6.12+33
Rhamondre Stevenson
Jack
7.01+35
DeAndre Hopkins
Jack
7.02-13
Chris Godwin Jr.
adam
7.03-12
Darnell Mooney
oren
7.04+19
Dalton Schultz
sam
7.05+3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
jon
7.06-12
Brandon Aiyuk
Al
7.07+19
Dameon Pierce
Brady
7.08-4
Devin Singletary
David
7.09+64
T.J. Hockenson
Ben
7.10-3
Adam Thielen
Josh
7.11-10
Hunter Renfrow
Benjamin
7.12-11
Kareem Hunt
adam.arbess
8.01-2
Allen Lazard
adam.arbess
8.02-2
Tony Pollard
Benjamin
8.03-4
Joe Burrow
Josh
8.04-2
Cordarrelle Patterson
Ben
8.05+46
Christian Kirk
David
8.06+21
Zach Ertz
Brady
8.07-9
Trey Lance
Al
8.08-1
Russell Wilson
jon
8.09+1
Antonio Gibson
sam
8.10+66
DeVonta Smith
oren
8.11+10
Dak Prescott
adam
8.12-9
James Cook III
Jack
9.01+15
Miles Sanders
Jack
9.02-9
Melvin Gordon III
adam
9.03-9
Robert Woods
oren
9.04-8
Drake London
sam
9.05-8
Kadarius Toney
jon
9.06-8
Michael Carter
Al
9.07-8
Aaron Rodgers
Brady
9.08-8
Tyler Lockett
David
9.09+13
Chris Olave
Ben
9.10-7
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Josh
9.11+30
Bills
Benjamin
9.12-6
Alexander Mattison
adam.arbess
10.01-6
Michael Gallup
adam.arbess
10.02-7
Dawson Knox
Benjamin
10.03-7
Chase Claypool
Josh
10.04-7
DeVante Parker
Ben
10.05-6
Matthew Stafford
David
10.06-6
Nyheim Miller-Hines
Brady
10.07-5
Khalil Herbert
Al
10.08-6
Kenneth Walker III
jon
10.09-7
Treylon Burks
sam
10.10-5
Pat Freiermuth
oren
10.11-7
Cole Kmet
adam
10.12+3
Rachaad White
Jack
11.01-8
George Pickens
Jack
11.02-8
James Robinson
adam
11.03+17
Jakobi Meyers
oren
11.04-7
Jamaal Williams
sam
11.05-8
Skyy Moore
jon
11.06-8
Derek Carr
Al
11.07-8
Isaiah McKenzie
Brady
11.08-8
Julio Jones
David
11.09-8
Jarvis Landry
Ben
11.10-9
Kenny Golladay
Josh
11.11-9
Kirk Cousins
Benjamin
11.12-8
David Njoku
adam.arbess
12.01+12
Buccaneers
adam.arbess
12.02-8
Tyler Boyd
Benjamin
12.03-8
Ronald Jones
Josh
12.04-8
Romeo Doubs
Ben
12.05-9
Kenny Gainwell
David
12.06+22
Justin Tucker
Brady
12.07-8
Austin Hooper
Al
12.08+19
Tyler Bass
jon
12.09+9
Evan McPherson
sam
12.10-8
J.D. McKissic
oren
12.11+7
Harrison Butker
adam
12.12-8
Zamir White
Jack
13.01+0
Rams
sam
13.02-8
Garrett Wilson
adam
13.03-1
Chris Boswell
oren
13.04-9
Jahan Dotson
sam
13.05-9
Nico Collins
jon
13.06-8
Matt Gay
Al
13.07-8
Cowboys
Brady
13.08+0
Brandon McManus
David
13.09+1
Packers
Ben
13.10+10
Daniel Carlson
Josh
13.11-3
Greg Joseph
Benjamin
13.12-7
Nick Folk
adam.arbess
14.01-8
Christian Watson
adam.arbess
14.02-7
DJ Chark
Benjamin
14.03-7
Jalen Tolbert
Josh
14.04-7
Matt Prater
Ben
14.05+17
49ers
David
14.06-7
Rondale Moore
Brady
14.07+27
Ravens
Al
14.08-7
Colts
jon
14.09-4
Chargers
Jack
14.10-7
Joshua Kelley
oren
14.11+13
Steelers
adam
14.12-6
Hunter Henry
Jack
15.01+16
Ryan Succop
Jack
15.02-7
Alec Pierce
adam
15.03+15
Broncos
oren
15.04-6
Irv Smith Jr.
sam
15.05-8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
jon
15.06-7
Joshua Palmer
Al
15.07-6
Jameson Williams
Brady
15.08-7
Mike Gesicki
David
15.09-7
Sammy Watkins
Ben
15.10-7
Saints
Josh
15.11-8
Tyler Higbee
Benjamin
15.12-8
Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.
adam.arbess
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2024
Best drafters in the league
- 01adam.arbessA+
- 02samA
- 03orenA-
- 04DavidB
- 05JoshB-
- 06adamC+
- 07JackC-
- 08BenD+
- 09jonD
- 10BradyF
2024
League superlatives
The Oracle
adam.arbess
Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick
The Sniper
oren
Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
oren
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28
Steady Hand
Ben
Most consistent picks · σ 11
Dead Money
Jack
Worst first-round return · −80
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | RB | RB | QB | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF |
| David | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | RB | DEF | QB |
| Brady | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | DEF | RB | WR | K | ||
| jon | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | TE | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | QB | K | TE |
| adam | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | K | DEF | TE | WR |
| Josh | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF |
| adam.arbess | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | DEF | K | WR |
| oren | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF |
| Ben | WR | RB | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | RB | WR | TE | TE | RB | K | DEF |
| sam | WR | RB | RB | QB | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | DEF | K | DEF | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |