The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake

1,000Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

oren

Last 3 years · 48 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

42%

beat the slot

Smashes

23%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+350

useful pts

Per pick

+7.3

Best pick

+116

Puka Nacua

Diagnosis

oren's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How oren gets better

The film room

The Puka Nacua read

Taken at pick 12 in 2025, he returned +116.0 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

DEF is your money position

3 DEF picks returned 2.88× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

RB is your blind spot

15 RB picks returned 78% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +49 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Alvin Kamara still hurts

Pick 32 in 2025 came in −27.6 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

1.93×

4 picks · 50% beat slot

0.78×

15 picks · 27% beat slot

1.37×

18 picks · 33% beat slot

2.13×

5 picks · 80% beat slot

1.68×

3 picks · 67% beat slot

DEF

2.88×

3 picks · 67% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+240

12 picks · 42% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+61

15 picks · 53% hit

Late (R10+)

+49

21 picks · 33% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

Puka Nacua

2025 · Rd 2 · pick 12 · 171.4 useful vs 55.4 expected

+116

Ja'Marr Chase

2024 · Rd 1 · pick 8 · 163.4 useful vs 61.9 expected

+102

Josh Allen

2025 · Rd 3 · pick 29 · 91.9 useful vs 29.7 expected

+62

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Alvin Kamara

2025 · Rd 4 · pick 32 · 3.7 useful vs 31.3 expected

−28

Michael Pittman Jr.

2024 · Rd 3 · pick 28 · 2.7 useful vs 30.1 expected

−27

James Conner

2024 · Rd 6 · pick 53 · 7.5 useful vs 23.5 expected

−16

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-44

Jonathan Taylor

Jack

1.02+74

Christian McCaffrey

adam

1.03+91

Austin Ekeler

oren

1.04+65

Justin Jefferson

sam

1.05-9

Derrick Henry

jon

1.06+21

Cooper Kupp

1.07+12

Ja'Marr Chase

Brady

1.08+2

Joe Mixon

David

1.09-4

Dalvin Cook

Ben

1.10-55

Najee Harris

Josh

1.11-59

Alvin Kamara

Benjamin

1.12-38

Davante Adams

adam.arbess

2.01-54

Stefon Diggs

adam.arbess

2.02-5

D'Andre Swift

Benjamin

2.03+110

Travis Kelce

Josh

2.04+15

Aaron Jones Sr.

Ben

2.05+17

CeeDee Lamb

David

2.06+39

Saquon Barkley

Brady

2.07+28

Nick Chubb

2.08-30

Leonard Fournette

jon

2.09-1

Mike Evans

sam

2.10+49

Mark Andrews

oren

2.11-7

Deebo Samuel Sr.

adam

2.12-25

Javonte Williams

Jack

3.01+14

Tyreek Hill

Jack

3.02-25

James Conner

adam

3.03-33

Keenan Allen

oren

3.04-28

Ezekiel Elliott

sam

3.05-24

Tee Higgins

jon

3.06-1

A.J. Brown

3.07-6

Travis Etienne Jr.

Brady

3.08-17

Kyle Pitts Sr.

David

3.09-5

Michael Pittman Jr.

Ben

3.10-32

Cam Akers

Josh

3.11-30

DJ Moore

Benjamin

3.12-34

J.K. Dobbins

adam.arbess

4.01-36

Chase Edmonds

adam.arbess

4.02+3

Mike Williams

Benjamin

4.03-34

Elijah Mitchell

Josh

4.04-35

AJ Dillon

Ben

4.05+58

Josh Allen

David

4.06-28

Courtland Sutton

Brady

4.07-40

David Montgomery

4.08-28

Terry McLaurin

jon

4.09-34

Diontae Johnson

sam

4.10-27

Allen Robinson

oren

4.11+48

Jaylen Waddle

adam

4.12-23

Jerry Jeudy

Jack

5.01-13

Justin Herbert

Jack

5.02-30

Breece Hall

adam

5.03+86

Patrick Mahomes

oren

5.04+22

Lamar Jackson

sam

5.05+54

George Kittle

jon

5.06-11

Darren Waller

5.07-16

Brandin Cooks

Brady

5.08+109

Josh Jacobs

David

5.09+60

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Ben

5.10-23

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Josh

5.11-18

Tom Brady

Benjamin

5.12+20

Gabe Davis

adam.arbess

6.01+82

Jalen Hurts

adam.arbess

6.02-1

Dallas Goedert

Benjamin

6.03+32

DK Metcalf

Josh

6.04+2

Kyler Murray

Ben

6.05+14

Hollywood Brown

David

6.06-17

Rashod Bateman

Brady

6.07-18

Rashaad Penny

6.08-17

Elijah Moore

jon

6.09-17

Michael Thomas

sam

6.10-7

Damien Harris

oren

6.11+17

Amari Cooper

adam

6.12+33

Rhamondre Stevenson

Jack

7.01+35

DeAndre Hopkins

Jack

7.02-13

Chris Godwin Jr.

adam

7.03-12

Darnell Mooney

oren

7.04+19

Dalton Schultz

sam

7.05+3

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

jon

7.06-12

Brandon Aiyuk

7.07+19

Dameon Pierce

Brady

7.08-4

Devin Singletary

David

7.09+64

T.J. Hockenson

Ben

7.10-3

Adam Thielen

Josh

7.11-10

Hunter Renfrow

Benjamin

7.12-11

Kareem Hunt

adam.arbess

8.01-2

Allen Lazard

adam.arbess

8.02-2

Tony Pollard

Benjamin

8.03-4

Joe Burrow

Josh

8.04-2

Cordarrelle Patterson

Ben

8.05+46

Christian Kirk

David

8.06+21

Zach Ertz

Brady

8.07-9

Trey Lance

8.08-1

Russell Wilson

jon

8.09+1

Antonio Gibson

sam

8.10+66

DeVonta Smith

oren

8.11+10

Dak Prescott

adam

8.12-9

James Cook III

Jack

9.01+15

Miles Sanders

Jack

9.02-9

Melvin Gordon III

adam

9.03-9

Robert Woods

oren

9.04-8

Drake London

sam

9.05-8

Kadarius Toney

jon

9.06-8

Michael Carter

9.07-8

Aaron Rodgers

Brady

9.08-8

Tyler Lockett

David

9.09+13

Chris Olave

Ben

9.10-7

Darrell Henderson Jr.

Josh

9.11+30

Bills

Benjamin

9.12-6

Alexander Mattison

adam.arbess

10.01-6

Michael Gallup

adam.arbess

10.02-7

Dawson Knox

Benjamin

10.03-7

Chase Claypool

Josh

10.04-7

DeVante Parker

Ben

10.05-6

Matthew Stafford

David

10.06-6

Nyheim Miller-Hines

Brady

10.07-5

Khalil Herbert

10.08-6

Kenneth Walker III

jon

10.09-7

Treylon Burks

sam

10.10-5

Pat Freiermuth

oren

10.11-7

Cole Kmet

adam

10.12+3

Rachaad White

Jack

11.01-8

George Pickens

Jack

11.02-8

James Robinson

adam

11.03+17

Jakobi Meyers

oren

11.04-7

Jamaal Williams

sam

11.05-8

Skyy Moore

jon

11.06-8

Derek Carr

11.07-8

Isaiah McKenzie

Brady

11.08-8

Julio Jones

David

11.09-8

Jarvis Landry

Ben

11.10-9

Kenny Golladay

Josh

11.11-9

Kirk Cousins

Benjamin

11.12-8

David Njoku

adam.arbess

12.01+12

Buccaneers

adam.arbess

12.02-8

Tyler Boyd

Benjamin

12.03-8

Ronald Jones

Josh

12.04-8

Romeo Doubs

Ben

12.05-9

Kenny Gainwell

David

12.06+22

Justin Tucker

Brady

12.07-8

Austin Hooper

12.08+19

Tyler Bass

jon

12.09+9

Evan McPherson

sam

12.10-8

J.D. McKissic

oren

12.11+7

Harrison Butker

adam

12.12-8

Zamir White

Jack

13.01+0

Rams

sam

13.02-8

Garrett Wilson

adam

13.03-1

Chris Boswell

oren

13.04-9

Jahan Dotson

sam

13.05-9

Nico Collins

jon

13.06-8

Matt Gay

13.07-8

Cowboys

Brady

13.08+0

Brandon McManus

David

13.09+1

Packers

Ben

13.10+10

Daniel Carlson

Josh

13.11-3

Greg Joseph

Benjamin

13.12-7

Nick Folk

adam.arbess

14.01-8

Christian Watson

adam.arbess

14.02-7

DJ Chark

Benjamin

14.03-7

Jalen Tolbert

Josh

14.04-7

Matt Prater

Ben

14.05+17

49ers

David

14.06-7

Rondale Moore

Brady

14.07+27

Ravens

14.08-7

Colts

jon

14.09-4

Chargers

Jack

14.10-7

Joshua Kelley

oren

14.11+13

Steelers

adam

14.12-6

Hunter Henry

Jack

15.01+16

Ryan Succop

Jack

15.02-7

Alec Pierce

adam

15.03+15

Broncos

oren

15.04-6

Irv Smith Jr.

sam

15.05-8

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

jon

15.06-7

Joshua Palmer

15.07-6

Jameson Williams

Brady

15.08-7

Mike Gesicki

David

15.09-7

Sammy Watkins

Ben

15.10-7

Saints

Josh

15.11-8

Tyler Higbee

Benjamin

15.12-8

Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.

adam.arbess

Evidence

The year-end receipts

Last 3 years

Best drafters in the league

01oren
A+
02Josh
A
03sam
A-
04adam.arbess
B
05Jack
B-
06David
C+
07adam
C-
08Brady
D+
09Ben
D
10jon
F

Last 3 years

League superlatives

The Oracle

oren

Best draft grade · A+ · +7.3/pick

The Sniper

Josh

Best single pick over slot · Jaxon Smith-Njigba +130.0

Bargain Hunter

adam

Most value from rounds 10+ · +101

Boom or Bust

Josh

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 34

Steady Hand

Ben

Most consistent picks · σ 15

Dead Money

jon

Worst first-round return · −190

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.46

The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Josh (A+)	2nd	sam (draft #3 of 10)
2024	adam.arbess (A+)	1st	adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10)
2023	oren (A+)	4th	Josh (draft #2 of 10)
2022	oren (A+)	10th	adam (draft #4 of 12)
2021	Josh (A+)	3rd	adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
Jack	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	RB	RB	RB	K
sam	RB	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	WR	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	DEF	DEF	QB	K
adam.arbess	WR	RB	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	TE	K	K	WR
David	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	K
jon	WR	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	K	K	WR
Brady	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	TE	WR	WR	WR	RB	QB	RB	RB	DEF	TE	K
Ben	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	WR	K	DEF
Josh	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	TE	RB	WR	WR	RB	DEF	DEF
oren	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	K	DEF	QB
adam	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	WR	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF	RB	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 33 (≈ R4)	92	27–164
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	67	1–169
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	71	1–178
TE	pick 16 (≈ R2)	82	5–180
K	pick 121 (≈ R13)	147	107–180
DEF	pick 114 (≈ R12)	145	87–179