The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake

1,000Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

adam.arbess

2024 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

56%

beat the slot

Smashes

44%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+248

useful pts

Per pick

+15.5

Best pick

+92

Saquon Barkley

Diagnosis

adam.arbess's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How adam.arbess gets better

The film room

The Saquon Barkley read

Taken at pick 14 in 2024, he returned +92.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

4 RB picks returned 1.91× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

TE is your blind spot

2 TE picks returned 80% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Kyle Pitts Sr. still hurts

Pick 66 in 2024 came in −10.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.24×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

1.91×

4 picks · 50% beat slot

1.70×

7 picks · 57% beat slot

0.80×

2 picks · 50% beat slot

3.23×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

0.86×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+178

4 picks · 100% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+72

5 picks · 60% hit

Late (R10+)

−2

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

Saquon Barkley

2024 · Rd 2 · pick 14 · 143.9 useful vs 51.8 expected

+92

Terry McLaurin

2024 · Rd 6 · pick 55 · 66.2 useful vs 22.6 expected

+44

Amon-Ra St. Brown

2024 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 110.1 useful vs 69.3 expected

+41

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Kyle Pitts Sr.

2024 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 6.3 useful vs 17.1 expected

−11

Brian Robinson Jr.

2024 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 10.8 expected

−11

Christian Watson

2024 · Rd 10 · pick 95 · 0.0 useful vs 8.5 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01+55

Jahmyr Gibbs

adam

1.02+29

Bijan Robinson

Josh

1.03+40

Ja'Marr Chase

jon

1.04-40

Puka Nacua

Ben

1.05+77

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

oren

1.06+5

Christian McCaffrey

adam.arbess

1.07+32

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Brady

1.08+15

Jonathan Taylor

David

1.09+6

James Cook III

jon

1.10+67

CeeDee Lamb

adam

2.01-33

De'Von Achane

Ben

2.02-17

Chase Brown

sam

2.03-25

Omarion Hampton

David

2.04-30

Saquon Barkley

Brady

2.05+72

Kenneth Walker III

adam.arbess

2.06-2

Justin Jefferson

oren

2.07+13

Derrick Henry

Brady

2.08+32

Brock Bowers

Jack

2.09+8

Ashton Jeanty

Josh

2.10-20

Josh Jacobs

Ben

3.01-21

A.J. Brown

sam

3.02+36

Chris Olave

Josh

3.03-5

Drake London

adam

3.04+33

Malik Nabers

adam.arbess

3.05+44

Trey McBride

oren

3.06+3

George Pickens

Jack

3.07-9

Jeremiyah Love

Jack

3.08+13

Nico Collins

David

3.09+8

DeVonta Smith

Jack

3.10+29

Javonte Williams

sam

4.01-5

Rashee Rice

sam

4.02-11

Breece Hall

jon

4.03+24

Kyren Williams

David

4.04-9

Ladd McConkey

adam.arbess

4.05+33

Josh Allen

Jack

4.06-6

Jaylen Waddle

oren

4.07-20

Cam Skattebo

Ben

4.08+61

Tee Higgins

Brady

4.09+27

Tetairoa McMillan

Josh

4.10+29

Zay Flowers

sam

5.01-21

Travis Etienne Jr.

adam

5.02+26

D'Andre Swift

Josh

5.03+0

Garrett Wilson

adam

5.04-15

Emeka Egbuka

sam

5.05-19

Lamar Jackson

oren

5.06-14

Colston Loveland

Jack

5.07-6

David Montgomery

Brady

5.08+12

Luther Burden III

David

5.09-2

DJ Moore

adam.arbess

5.10+19

Bucky Irving

sam

6.01-16

Terry McLaurin

Brady

6.02+28

Davante Adams

jon

6.03+5

Mike Evans

David

6.04-6

Quinshon Judkins

jon

6.05-13

Jadarian Price

Jack

6.06+28

Bhayshul Tuten

oren

6.07+16

Jameson Williams

Jack

6.08+26

Parker Washington

adam.arbess

6.09+47

Christian Watson

Josh

6.10+5

Carnell Tate

Jack

7.01-10

Rome Odunze

sam

7.02+0

Tucker Kraft

Josh

7.03-10

TreVeyon Henderson

adam

7.04-11

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ben

7.05+27

Jaylen Warren

oren

7.06-2

Rhamondre Stevenson

adam.arbess

7.07+13

Tyler Warren

jon

7.08+21

Michael Wilson

David

7.09-10

Tony Pollard

jon

7.10-8

Brian Thomas Jr.

Ben

8.01-8

DK Metcalf

Ben

8.02+4

Stefon Diggs

jon

8.03-8

Chris Godwin Jr.

David

8.04+23

Sam LaPorta

Brady

8.05-7

Josh Downs

adam.arbess

8.06-7

Blake Corum

oren

8.07+45

Chuba Hubbard

Ben

8.08+32

Drake Maye

sam

8.09-7

Jonathon Brooks

Josh

8.10+46

Joe Burrow

adam

9.01+12

Kyle Pitts Sr.

adam

9.02+10

Caleb Williams

Josh

9.03-6

Jordan Addison

adam

9.04-2

J.K. Dobbins

Jack

9.05-6

Courtland Sutton

oren

9.06-6

Rachaad White

adam.arbess

9.07-6

Quentin Johnston

Brady

9.08-5

Wan'Dale Robinson

David

9.09-5

Alec Pierce

jon

9.10+25

Matthew Golden

Ben

10.01-5

Michael Pittman Jr.

sam

10.02+11

Trevor Lawrence

jon

10.03+7

Harold Fannin Jr.

David

10.04-5

De'Zhaun Stribling

Jack

10.05-1

Jayden Daniels

adam.arbess

10.06-5

Jordan Mason

oren

10.07-5

Makai Lemon

Ben

10.08-5

Jayden Reed

adam

10.09+43

Isaiah Likely

Josh

10.10-5

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

sam

11.01-5

KC Concepcion Jr.

Brady

11.02-4

Mike Washington Jr.

Josh

11.03-4

Rico Dowdle

adam

11.04-1

RJ Harvey

Ben

11.05+29

George Kittle

oren

11.06+6

Dalton Kincaid

adam.arbess

11.07-1

Jalen Hurts

Brady

11.08-4

Romeo Doubs

David

11.09+1

Aaron Jones Sr.

jon

11.10-4

Kyle Monangai

Jack

12.01+23

Brandon Aubrey

sam

12.02-4

Jakobi Meyers

jon

12.03-1

Rams

David

12.04-4

Kenny Gainwell

Brady

12.05+9

Texans

adam.arbess

12.06-3

Jordyn Tyson

oren

12.07-4

Tyler Allgeier

Ben

12.08+4

Jalen Coker

adam

12.09-4

Rashid Shaheed

Josh

12.10-4

Keaton Mitchell

Jack

13.01-5

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Brady

13.02-5

Tyjae Spears

Josh

13.03+19

Broncos

adam

13.04-4

Jake Ferguson

Ben

13.05+14

Seahawks

oren

13.06+10

Dallas Goedert

adam.arbess

13.07-5

Tank Bigsby

Brady

13.08-5

Zach Charbonnet

David

13.09-5

Bo Nix

jon

13.10-3

Patriots

sam

14.01+16

Vikings

sam

14.02+7

Jason Myers

jon

14.03-5

Eagles

David

14.04-5

MarShawn Lloyd

Brady

14.05-5

Tre Tucker

adam.arbess

14.06-5

Justin Herbert

oren

14.07-5

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ben

14.08-3

Cameron Dicker

adam

14.09+15

Cam Little

Josh

14.10-4

Cyrus Allen

Jack

15.01+19

Evan McPherson

Jack

15.02-4

Chargers

Josh

15.03+9

Patrick Mahomes

adam

15.04-5

Matthew Stafford

Ben

15.05+13

Chris Boswell

oren

15.06-2

Cairo Santos

adam.arbess

15.07+1

Jaguars

Brady

15.08-5

Woody Marks

David

15.09+28

Steelers

jon

15.10-5

Ravens

sam

16.01+13

Travis Kelce

sam

16.02-4

Juwan Johnson

jon

16.03-2

Jaxson Dart

David

16.04-4

Chase McLaughlin

Brady

16.05-3

Deebo Samuel Sr.

adam.arbess

16.06-4

Fernando Mendoza

oren

16.07-4

Bears

Ben

16.08-4

Xavier Worthy

adam

16.09+3

Dak Prescott

Josh

16.10-4

Falcons

Jack

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2024

Best drafters in the league

01adam.arbess
A+
02sam
A
03oren
A-
04David
B
05Josh
B-
06adam
C+
07Jack
C-
08Ben
D+
09jon
D
10Brady
F

2024

League superlatives

The Oracle

adam.arbess

Best draft grade · A+ · +15.5/pick

The Sniper

oren

Best single pick over slot · Ja'Marr Chase +101.5

Bargain Hunter

adam

Most value from rounds 10+ · +58

Boom or Bust

oren

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 28

Steady Hand

Ben

Most consistent picks · σ 11

Dead Money

Jack

Worst first-round return · −80

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.46

The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Josh (A+)	2nd	sam (draft #3 of 10)
2024	adam.arbess (A+)	1st	adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10)
2023	oren (A+)	4th	Josh (draft #2 of 10)
2022	oren (A+)	10th	adam (draft #4 of 12)
2021	Josh (A+)	3rd	adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
Jack	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	RB	QB	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	DEF
David	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	QB
Brady	WR	RB	WR	WR		TE		RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	DEF	RB	WR	K
jon	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	QB	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	QB	K	TE
adam	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	RB	TE	K	DEF	TE	WR
Josh	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
adam.arbess	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	DEF	K	WR
oren	WR	RB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	K	DEF
Ben	WR	RB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	RB	WR	TE	TE	RB	K	DEF
sam	WR	RB	RB		QB	TE	RB	WR		WR	WR	WR	DEF	K	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 33 (≈ R4)	92	27–164
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	67	1–169
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	71	1–178
TE	pick 16 (≈ R2)	82	5–180
K	pick 121 (≈ R13)	147	107–180
DEF	pick 114 (≈ R12)	145	87–179