The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
Josh
2021 · 15 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
20%
beat the slot
Smashes
20%
top 15% picks
Busts
7%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+166
useful pts
Per pick
+11.1
Best pick
+162
Cooper Kupp
01
Diagnosis
Josh's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Josh gets better
The film room
The Cooper Kupp read
Taken at pick 40 in 2021, he returned +162.4 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
6 WR picks returned 2.48× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
RB is your blind spot
5 RB picks returned 71% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Antonio Gibson still hurts
Pick 16 in 2021 came in −14.0 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.41×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
0.71×
5 picks · 0% beat slot
WR
2.48×
6 picks · 33% beat slot
TE
0.56×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
K
0.49×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
DEF
0.24×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+205
4 picks · 50% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+2
5 picks · 20% hit
Late (R10+)
−40
6 picks · 0% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+162
Cooper Kupp
2021 · Rd 4 · pick 40 · 197.4 useful vs 35.0 expected
WR+58
Davante Adams
2021 · Rd 1 · pick 9 · 122.9 useful vs 64.8 expected
QB+26
Dak Prescott
2021 · Rd 6 · pick 64 · 45.0 useful vs 18.7 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−14
Antonio Gibson
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 16 · 37.4 useful vs 51.4 expected
RB−9
Zack Moss
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 88 · 0.0 useful vs 9.3 expected
RB−8
Carlos Hyde
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 129 · 0.0 useful vs 8.4 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01+55
Jahmyr Gibbs
adam
1.02+29
Bijan Robinson
Josh
1.03+40
Ja'Marr Chase
jon
1.04-40
Puka Nacua
Ben
1.05+77
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
oren
1.06+5
Christian McCaffrey
adam.arbess
1.07+32
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Brady
1.08+15
Jonathan Taylor
David
1.09+6
James Cook III
jon
1.10+67
CeeDee Lamb
adam
2.01-33
De'Von Achane
Ben
2.02-17
Chase Brown
sam
2.03-25
Omarion Hampton
David
2.04-30
Saquon Barkley
Brady
2.05+72
Kenneth Walker III
adam.arbess
2.06-2
Justin Jefferson
oren
2.07+13
Derrick Henry
Brady
2.08+32
Brock Bowers
Jack
2.09+8
Ashton Jeanty
Josh
2.10-20
Josh Jacobs
Ben
3.01-21
A.J. Brown
sam
3.02+36
Chris Olave
Josh
3.03-5
Drake London
adam
3.04+33
Malik Nabers
adam.arbess
3.05+44
Trey McBride
oren
3.06+3
George Pickens
Jack
3.07-9
Jeremiyah Love
Jack
3.08+13
Nico Collins
David
3.09+8
DeVonta Smith
Jack
3.10+29
Javonte Williams
sam
4.01-5
Rashee Rice
sam
4.02-11
Breece Hall
jon
4.03+24
Kyren Williams
David
4.04-9
Ladd McConkey
adam.arbess
4.05+33
Josh Allen
Jack
4.06-6
Jaylen Waddle
oren
4.07-20
Cam Skattebo
Ben
4.08+61
Tee Higgins
Brady
4.09+27
Tetairoa McMillan
Josh
4.10+29
Zay Flowers
sam
5.01-21
Travis Etienne Jr.
adam
5.02+26
D'Andre Swift
Josh
5.03+0
Garrett Wilson
adam
5.04-15
Emeka Egbuka
sam
5.05-19
Lamar Jackson
oren
5.06-14
Colston Loveland
Jack
5.07-6
David Montgomery
Brady
5.08+12
Luther Burden III
David
5.09-2
DJ Moore
adam.arbess
5.10+19
Bucky Irving
sam
6.01-16
Terry McLaurin
Brady
6.02+28
Davante Adams
jon
6.03+5
Mike Evans
David
6.04-6
Quinshon Judkins
jon
6.05-13
Jadarian Price
Jack
6.06+28
Bhayshul Tuten
oren
6.07+16
Jameson Williams
Jack
6.08+26
Parker Washington
adam.arbess
6.09+47
Christian Watson
Josh
6.10+5
Carnell Tate
Jack
7.01-10
Rome Odunze
sam
7.02+0
Tucker Kraft
Josh
7.03-10
TreVeyon Henderson
adam
7.04-11
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ben
7.05+27
Jaylen Warren
oren
7.06-2
Rhamondre Stevenson
adam.arbess
7.07+13
Tyler Warren
jon
7.08+21
Michael Wilson
David
7.09-10
Tony Pollard
jon
7.10-8
Brian Thomas Jr.
Ben
8.01-8
DK Metcalf
Ben
8.02+4
Stefon Diggs
jon
8.03-8
Chris Godwin Jr.
David
8.04+23
Sam LaPorta
Brady
8.05-7
Josh Downs
adam.arbess
8.06-7
Blake Corum
oren
8.07+45
Chuba Hubbard
Ben
8.08+32
Drake Maye
sam
8.09-7
Jonathon Brooks
Josh
8.10+46
Joe Burrow
adam
9.01+12
Kyle Pitts Sr.
adam
9.02+10
Caleb Williams
Josh
9.03-6
Jordan Addison
adam
9.04-2
J.K. Dobbins
Jack
9.05-6
Courtland Sutton
oren
9.06-6
Rachaad White
adam.arbess
9.07-6
Quentin Johnston
Brady
9.08-5
Wan'Dale Robinson
David
9.09-5
Alec Pierce
jon
9.10+25
Matthew Golden
Ben
10.01-5
Michael Pittman Jr.
sam
10.02+11
Trevor Lawrence
jon
10.03+7
Harold Fannin Jr.
David
10.04-5
De'Zhaun Stribling
Jack
10.05-1
Jayden Daniels
adam.arbess
10.06-5
Jordan Mason
oren
10.07-5
Makai Lemon
Ben
10.08-5
Jayden Reed
adam
10.09+43
Isaiah Likely
Josh
10.10-5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
sam
11.01-5
KC Concepcion Jr.
Brady
11.02-4
Mike Washington Jr.
Josh
11.03-4
Rico Dowdle
adam
11.04-1
RJ Harvey
Ben
11.05+29
George Kittle
oren
11.06+6
Dalton Kincaid
adam.arbess
11.07-1
Jalen Hurts
Brady
11.08-4
Romeo Doubs
David
11.09+1
Aaron Jones Sr.
jon
11.10-4
Kyle Monangai
Jack
12.01+23
Brandon Aubrey
sam
12.02-4
Jakobi Meyers
jon
12.03-1
Rams
David
12.04-4
Kenny Gainwell
Brady
12.05+9
Texans
adam.arbess
12.06-3
Jordyn Tyson
oren
12.07-4
Tyler Allgeier
Ben
12.08+4
Jalen Coker
adam
12.09-4
Rashid Shaheed
Josh
12.10-4
Keaton Mitchell
Jack
13.01-5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Brady
13.02-5
Tyjae Spears
Josh
13.03+19
Broncos
adam
13.04-4
Jake Ferguson
Ben
13.05+14
Seahawks
oren
13.06+10
Dallas Goedert
adam.arbess
13.07-5
Tank Bigsby
Brady
13.08-5
Zach Charbonnet
David
13.09-5
Bo Nix
jon
13.10-3
Patriots
sam
14.01+16
Vikings
sam
14.02+7
Jason Myers
jon
14.03-5
Eagles
David
14.04-5
MarShawn Lloyd
Brady
14.05-5
Tre Tucker
adam.arbess
14.06-5
Justin Herbert
oren
14.07-5
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Ben
14.08-3
Cameron Dicker
adam
14.09+15
Cam Little
Josh
14.10-4
Cyrus Allen
Jack
15.01+19
Evan McPherson
Jack
15.02-4
Chargers
Josh
15.03+9
Patrick Mahomes
adam
15.04-5
Matthew Stafford
Ben
15.05+13
Chris Boswell
oren
15.06-2
Cairo Santos
adam.arbess
15.07+1
Jaguars
Brady
15.08-5
Woody Marks
David
15.09+28
Steelers
jon
15.10-5
Ravens
sam
16.01+13
Travis Kelce
sam
16.02-4
Juwan Johnson
jon
16.03-2
Jaxson Dart
David
16.04-4
Chase McLaughlin
Brady
16.05-3
Deebo Samuel Sr.
adam.arbess
16.06-4
Fernando Mendoza
oren
16.07-4
Bears
Ben
16.08-4
Xavier Worthy
adam
16.09+3
Dak Prescott
Josh
16.10-4
Falcons
Jack
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01JoshA+
- 02samA
- 03adamA-
- 04AlB+
- 05BenB
- 06DavidB-
- 07orenC+
- 08CooperC
- 09BradyC-
- 10JackD+
- 11jonD
- 12adam.arbessF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Josh
Best draft grade · A+ · +11.1/pick
The Sniper
Josh
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +162.4
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +110
Boom or Bust
Josh
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Brady
Most consistent picks · σ 11
Dead Money
oren
Worst first-round return · −57
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al | RB | RB | WR | TE | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | K | TE | DEF | WR | RB |
| Brady | RB | TE | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K |
| adam | RB | WR | RB | WR | TE | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | QB | RB | K | DEF | WR |
| jon | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | WR | TE | K |
| Jack | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | QB | TE | RB | DEF | WR | K |
| oren | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | WR | WR | WR | RB | QB | QB | DEF | RB | QB | K |
| adam.arbess | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | RB | QB | WR | TE | K | WR | DEF |
| sam | TE | RB | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | DEF | WR | QB | K |
| Josh | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | QB | TE | RB | WR | WR | RB | DEF | WR | WR | K |
| Cooper | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | WR | K | TE | QB | RB | WR |
| David | RB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | QB | WR | K | WR | QB | RB | DEF |
| Ben | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | DEF | WR | WR | K |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |