The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
oren
All time · 78 graded picks
#1 of 13
drafters
Hit rate
40%
beat the slot
Smashes
22%
top 15% picks
Busts
12%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+559
useful pts
Per pick
+7.2
Best pick
+116
Puka Nacua
01
Diagnosis
oren's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How oren gets better
The film room
The Puka Nacua read
Taken at pick 12 in 2025, he returned +116.0 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
DEF is your money position
5 DEF picks returned 2.74× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +82 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
Saquon Barkley still hurts
Pick 6 in 2021 came in −56.5 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.11×
8 picks · 38% beat slot
RB
0.93×
23 picks · 26% beat slot
WR
1.29×
29 picks · 34% beat slot
TE
1.83×
8 picks · 63% beat slot
K
2.36×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
DEF
2.74×
5 picks · 80% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+352
20 picks · 50% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+125
25 picks · 40% hit
Late (R10+)
+82
33 picks · 33% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+116
Puka Nacua
2025 · Rd 2 · pick 12 · 171.4 useful vs 55.4 expected
WR+102
Ja'Marr Chase
2024 · Rd 1 · pick 8 · 163.4 useful vs 61.9 expected
RB+91
Austin Ekeler
2022 · Rd 1 · pick 3 · 166.7 useful vs 75.4 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−57
Saquon Barkley
2021 · Rd 1 · pick 6 · 18.8 useful vs 75.3 expected
WR−33
Keenan Allen
2022 · Rd 3 · pick 27 · 0.0 useful vs 33.0 expected
RB−28
Alvin Kamara
2025 · Rd 4 · pick 32 · 3.7 useful vs 31.3 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-35
Justin Jefferson
adam.arbess
1.02+15
Ja'Marr Chase
oren
1.03+112
Christian McCaffrey
Josh
1.04+85
Tyreek Hill
Jack
1.05-78
Travis Kelce
jon
1.06-60
Austin Ekeler
adam
1.07-21
Cooper Kupp
David
1.08+15
Stefon Diggs
Brady
1.09-37
Bijan Robinson
Ben
1.10-3
Saquon Barkley
sam
2.01-53
Nick Chubb
jon
2.02-12
Tony Pollard
Ben
2.03-19
Davante Adams
Brady
2.04+42
CeeDee Lamb
David
2.05+5
Derrick Henry
adam
2.06+41
A.J. Brown
sam
2.07-22
Garrett Wilson
Jack
2.08+72
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh
2.09-2
Jaylen Waddle
oren
2.10+5
Josh Jacobs
adam.arbess
3.01-26
Rhamondre Stevenson
adam.arbess
3.02-14
Jonathan Taylor
oren
3.03-21
Chris Olave
Josh
3.04+14
DeVonta Smith
Jack
3.05-19
Tee Higgins
jon
3.06+21
Joe Mixon
adam
3.07+44
Travis Etienne Jr.
David
3.08-28
Najee Harris
Brady
3.09+17
Calvin Ridley
Ben
3.10+45
Jahmyr Gibbs
sam
4.01-24
Patrick Mahomes
jon
4.02-13
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Ben
4.03+24
Josh Allen
Brady
4.04+12
Mark Andrews
David
4.05+17
DK Metcalf
adam
4.06-29
Jalen Hurts
sam
4.07-13
Aaron Jones Sr.
Jack
4.08+29
Amari Cooper
Josh
4.09+31
Lamar Jackson
oren
4.10-34
J.K. Dobbins
adam.arbess
5.01+46
DJ Moore
adam.arbess
5.02+5
Kenneth Walker III
oren
5.03-39
Alexander Mattison
Josh
5.04+24
Breece Hall
Jack
5.05+43
T.J. Hockenson
sam
5.06+79
Keenan Allen
adam
5.07-29
Miles Sanders
David
5.08-29
Dameon Pierce
Brady
5.09-19
Tyler Lockett
Ben
5.10-30
Cam Akers
jon
6.01-9
Drake London
sam
6.02-5
Justin Fields
Ben
6.03+29
Brandon Aiyuk
Brady
6.04-21
Christian Watson
David
6.05-9
DeAndre Hopkins
adam
6.06-23
Terry McLaurin
sam
6.07-12
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Jack
6.08-18
James Conner
Josh
6.09+28
D'Andre Swift
oren
6.10+35
James Cook III
adam.arbess
7.01-3
Darren Waller
adam.arbess
7.02+19
Michael Pittman Jr.
oren
7.03-17
Chris Godwin Jr.
Josh
7.04-13
Javonte Williams
Jack
7.05+45
Mike Evans
sam
7.06-17
Dalvin Cook
adam
7.07-7
Joe Burrow
David
7.08-9
Rachaad White
Brady
7.09-4
Mike Williams
Ben
7.10+6
Christian Kirk
jon
8.01-14
Alvin Kamara
sam
8.02-3
Dallas Goedert
Ben
8.03+10
George Kittle
Brady
8.04+10
David Montgomery
David
8.05+4
George Pickens
adam
8.06-10
Hollywood Brown
sam
8.07-12
Jahan Dotson
Jack
8.08-11
Isiah Pacheco
Josh
8.09+6
Evan Engram
oren
8.10-12
Khalil Herbert
adam.arbess
9.01-12
Jerry Jeudy
adam.arbess
9.02+11
Jordan Addison
oren
9.03-9
Pat Freiermuth
Josh
9.04+19
Justin Herbert
Jack
9.05-11
Diontae Johnson
jon
9.06-11
Jamaal Williams
adam
9.07-6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
David
9.08-9
Michael Thomas
Brady
9.09-10
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Ben
9.10-10
Brian Robinson Jr.
jon
10.01-4
Gabe Davis
jon
10.02-10
D'Onta Foreman
Ben
10.03-9
Antonio Gibson
Brady
10.04-8
AJ Dillon
David
10.05-3
Dalton Kincaid
adam
10.06-9
Brandin Cooks
sam
10.07-6
Zach Charbonnet
Jack
10.08-4
Trevor Lawrence
Josh
10.09-9
Quentin Johnston
oren
10.10-8
Elijah Moore
adam.arbess
11.01-5
Zay Flowers
adam.arbess
11.02-8
Jerick McKinnon
oren
11.03-8
Nico Collins
Josh
11.04-8
Samaje Perine
Jack
11.05-8
Rashod Bateman
jon
11.06-7
Tyler Allgeier
adam
11.07-7
Treylon Burks
David
11.08-6
Courtland Sutton
Brady
11.09-7
Elijah Mitchell
Ben
11.10-7
Kenny Gainwell
jon
12.01-7
Adam Thielen
jon
12.02-7
Odell Beckham Jr.
Ben
12.03-6
Skyy Moore
Brady
12.04-6
Jameson Williams
David
12.05+65
Dak Prescott
adam
12.06-6
David Njoku
sam
12.07-7
Kadarius Toney
Jack
12.08-3
Jakobi Meyers
Josh
12.09-7
Jeff Wilson Jr.
oren
12.10-8
Rashaad Penny
adam.arbess
13.01+25
49ers
adam.arbess
13.02+58
Sam LaPorta
oren
13.03+34
Justin Tucker
Josh
13.04-7
Jaylen Warren
Jack
13.05-5
Eagles
sam
13.06-8
Jalin Hyatt
adam
13.07-8
Tank Bigsby
David
13.08-8
Damien Harris
Brady
13.09-4
Romeo Doubs
Ben
13.10-9
Anthony Richardson Sr.
jon
14.01+35
Bills
jon
14.02-8
Dalton Schultz
Ben
14.03-8
Darnell Mooney
Brady
14.04+73
Cowboys
David
14.05+17
Evan McPherson
adam
14.06-8
Rashee Rice
sam
14.07-9
Raheem Mostert
Jack
14.08-8
De'Von Achane
Josh
14.09+27
Steelers
oren
14.100
Deshaun Watson
adam.arbess
15.01+13
Harrison Butker
adam.arbess
15.02+5
Zack Moss
oren
15.03-8
Allen Lazard
Josh
15.04-8
Broncos
Jack
15.05+0
Tyler Boyd
sam
15.06-7
Patriots
adam
15.07+17
Tyler Bass
David
15.08-8
Younghoe Koo
Brady
15.09-7
Jason Myers
Ben
15.10-8
Daniel Carlson
jon
16.01-8
Ezekiel Elliott
jon
16.02+18
Jets
Ben
16.03-5
Saints
Brady
16.04-7
Marvin Mims Jr.
David
16.05-8
Michael Gallup
adam
16.06+4
Riley Patterson
sam
16.07+1
Jason Sanders
Jack
16.08-7
Bengals
Josh
16.09+5
Chris Boswell
oren
16.10-7
Jonathan Mingo
adam.arbess
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
All time
Best drafters in the league
- 01orenA+
- 02JoshA
- 03samA-
- 04DavidB+
- 05AlB
- 06adamB-
- 07JackC+
- 08CooperC
- 09adam.arbessC-
- 10BenD+
- 11BradyD
- 12jonF
- 13BenjaminF
All time
League superlatives
The Oracle
oren
Best draft grade · A+ · +7.2/pick
The Sniper
Josh
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +162.4
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +201
Boom or Bust
Josh
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 37
Steady Hand
Cooper
Most consistent picks · σ 15
Dead Money
jon
Worst first-round return · −217
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | WR | RB | RB | RB | RB | K |
| sam | RB | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | DEF | DEF | QB | K |
| adam.arbess | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | K | WR | DEF | WR |
| David | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | QB | RB | DEF | K |
| jon | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | K | WR |
| Brady | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | WR | WR | K |
| Ben | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | K | DEF |
| Josh | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | RB | WR | WR | RB | DEF | DEF |
| oren | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | RB | RB | DEF | QB |
| adam | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| Al | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | QB | TE | K | DEF | WR | |
| Benjamin | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | TE | WR | RB | DEF | TE | QB | WR | K | WR | TE | |
| Cooper | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | WR | K | TE | QB | RB | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |