The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
oren
All time · 78 graded picks
#1 of 13
drafters
Hit rate
40%
beat the slot
Smashes
22%
top 15% picks
Busts
12%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+559
useful pts
Per pick
+7.2
Best pick
+116
Puka Nacua
01
Diagnosis
oren's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How oren gets better
The film room
The Puka Nacua read
Taken at pick 12 in 2025, he returned +116.0 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
DEF is your money position
5 DEF picks returned 2.74× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +82 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
Saquon Barkley still hurts
Pick 6 in 2021 came in −56.5 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.11×
8 picks · 38% beat slot
RB
0.93×
23 picks · 26% beat slot
WR
1.29×
29 picks · 34% beat slot
TE
1.83×
8 picks · 63% beat slot
K
2.36×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
DEF
2.74×
5 picks · 80% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+352
20 picks · 50% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+125
25 picks · 40% hit
Late (R10+)
+82
33 picks · 33% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+116
Puka Nacua
2025 · Rd 2 · pick 12 · 171.4 useful vs 55.4 expected
WR+102
Ja'Marr Chase
2024 · Rd 1 · pick 8 · 163.4 useful vs 61.9 expected
RB+91
Austin Ekeler
2022 · Rd 1 · pick 3 · 166.7 useful vs 75.4 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−57
Saquon Barkley
2021 · Rd 1 · pick 6 · 18.8 useful vs 75.3 expected
WR−33
Keenan Allen
2022 · Rd 3 · pick 27 · 0.0 useful vs 33.0 expected
RB−28
Alvin Kamara
2025 · Rd 4 · pick 32 · 3.7 useful vs 31.3 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-79
Christian McCaffrey
Jack
1.02+7
CeeDee Lamb
David
1.03-61
Tyreek Hill
Brady
1.04-59
Breece Hall
jon
1.05-17
Bijan Robinson
adam
1.06-19
Justin Jefferson
Josh
1.07+41
Amon-Ra St. Brown
adam.arbess
1.08+102
Ja'Marr Chase
oren
1.09-8
Garrett Wilson
Ben
1.10+12
A.J. Brown
sam
2.01-52
Jahmyr Gibbs
sam
2.02-34
Jonathan Taylor
Ben
2.03-2
Kyren Williams
oren
2.04+92
Saquon Barkley
adam.arbess
2.05+19
Derrick Henry
Josh
2.06+10
Puka Nacua
adam
2.07-34
Davante Adams
jon
2.08-24
De'Von Achane
Brady
2.09+18
Drake London
David
2.10-35
Isiah Pacheco
Jack
3.01+1
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jack
3.02-35
Travis Etienne Jr.
David
3.03+10
Nico Collins
Brady
3.04-24
Chris Olave
jon
3.05-9
Mike Evans
adam
3.06+34
Cooper Kupp
adam.arbess
3.07-33
Brandon Aiyuk
Josh
3.08-27
Michael Pittman Jr.
oren
3.09+5
Travis Kelce
Ben
3.10-15
Josh Jacobs
sam
4.01-18
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Brady
4.02-4
Josh Allen
Ben
4.03-11
Sam LaPorta
oren
4.04-27
Jaylen Waddle
Josh
4.05+12
Joe Mixon
adam.arbess
4.06-29
Rachaad White
adam
4.070
James Cook III
jon
4.08-7
DeVonta Smith
Brady
4.09-19
DJ Moore
David
4.10+2
DK Metcalf
Jack
5.01-7
Kenneth Walker III
Jack
5.02+16
Trey McBride
David
5.03+13
Jalen Hurts
sam
5.04+23
Alvin Kamara
jon
5.05-17
Stefon Diggs
adam
5.06+35
Malik Nabers
adam.arbess
5.07+62
Lamar Jackson
Josh
5.08-3
Rashee Rice
oren
5.09-15
Aaron Jones Sr.
Ben
5.10+18
Zay Flowers
sam
6.01+57
George Kittle
sam
6.02-27
Keenan Allen
Ben
6.03-16
James Conner
oren
6.04+2
Amari Cooper
Josh
6.05+44
Terry McLaurin
adam.arbess
6.06-12
Tank Dell
adam
6.07-22
Patrick Mahomes
jon
6.08-21
Mark Andrews
Brady
6.09+37
Tee Higgins
David
6.10-1
George Pickens
Jack
7.01-12
Dalton Kincaid
Jack
7.02-5
David Montgomery
David
7.03-4
Rhamondre Stevenson
sam
7.04-14
Evan Engram
jon
7.05-9
Anthony Richardson Sr.
adam
7.06-11
Kyle Pitts Sr.
adam.arbess
7.07-18
Zamir White
Josh
7.08-4
Calvin Ridley
oren
7.09-9
Tony Pollard
Ben
7.10-9
Christian Kirk
sam
8.01+14
Chris Godwin Jr.
sam
8.02+14
Jayden Daniels
Ben
8.03-6
C.J. Stroud
oren
8.04+1
Diontae Johnson
Josh
8.05+15
Kyler Murray
adam.arbess
8.06-9
Najee Harris
adam
8.07+22
Jayden Reed
jon
8.08-12
Javonte Williams
Brady
8.09+4
D'Andre Swift
David
8.10-12
Raheem Mostert
Jack
9.01-12
Jaylen Warren
Jack
9.02-12
Xavier Worthy
David
9.03-10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Brady
9.04-11
Devin Singletary
jon
9.05-11
Rome Odunze
adam
9.06-11
Brian Robinson Jr.
adam.arbess
9.07-10
Tyjae Spears
Josh
9.08+1
Brian Thomas Jr.
oren
9.09-10
Jordan Addison
Ben
9.10+11
Chase Brown
Brady
10.01-9
Hollywood Brown
sam
10.02-10
Zack Moss
Ben
10.03-9
Jonathon Brooks
oren
10.04+3
Jake Ferguson
Josh
10.05-8
Christian Watson
adam.arbess
10.06+35
Courtland Sutton
adam
10.07-9
Keon Coleman
jon
10.08-9
Jerome Ford
Brady
10.09-7
Ladd McConkey
David
10.10+63
Joe Burrow
Jack
11.01+1
Jameson Williams
Jack
11.02+6
Dak Prescott
David
11.03+13
Jordan Love
Brady
11.04-8
Chuba Hubbard
jon
11.050
Nick Chubb
adam
11.06-2
Rico Dowdle
adam.arbess
11.07-7
Gus Edwards
Josh
11.08-6
Joshua Palmer
oren
11.09-7
DeAndre Hopkins
Ben
11.10-7
Tyler Lockett
sam
12.01-7
Ja'Lynn Polk
sam
12.02-7
Brock Bowers
Ben
12.03-6
Khalil Shakir
oren
12.04-6
Curtis Samuel
Josh
12.05+6
David Njoku
adam.arbess
12.06+17
Dallas Goedert
adam
12.07+6
Jerry Jeudy
jon
12.08-7
Jakobi Meyers
Brady
12.09-7
Mike Williams
David
12.10-8
Romeo Doubs
Jack
13.01-8
Dontayvion Wicks
Jack
13.02-8
Ezekiel Elliott
David
13.03-7
Cowboys
Brady
13.04-7
Ravens
jon
13.05+7
Justin Tucker
adam
13.06-8
Brandin Cooks
adam.arbess
13.07-4
Austin Ekeler
Josh
13.08-8
Blake Corum
oren
13.09-8
T.J. Hockenson
Ben
13.10+10
49ers
sam
14.01+43
Brandon Aubrey
sam
14.02-8
Ty Chandler
Ben
14.03-8
Trey Benson
oren
14.04+28
Zach Charbonnet
Josh
14.05-1
Browns
adam.arbess
14.06+15
Jets
adam
14.07-9
Caleb Williams
jon
14.08-8
Tyler Allgeier
Brady
14.09-8
Khalil Herbert
David
14.10-8
J.K. Dobbins
Jack
15.01-8
Elijah Mitchell
Jack
15.02+28
Steelers
David
15.03-8
Adonai Mitchell
Brady
15.04+6
Harrison Butker
jon
15.05-8
Luke Musgrave
adam
15.06+18
Jake Moody
adam.arbess
15.07-8
Jason Sanders
Josh
15.08-9
Jake Elliott
oren
15.09+1
Tyler Bass
Ben
15.10-7
Chiefs
sam
16.01-8
DeMario Douglas
sam
16.02-8
Eagles
Ben
16.03+26
Texans
oren
16.04-5
Dolphins
Josh
16.05-8
Rashid Shaheed
adam.arbess
16.06-7
Adam Thielen
adam
16.07-8
Dalton Schultz
jon
16.08-7
Younghoe Koo
Brady
16.09-7
Tua Tagovailoa
David
16.10+4
Seahawks
Jack
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
All time
Best drafters in the league
- 01orenA+
- 02JoshA
- 03samA-
- 04DavidB+
- 05AlB
- 06adamB-
- 07JackC+
- 08CooperC
- 09adam.arbessC-
- 10BenD+
- 11BradyD
- 12jonF
- 13BenjaminF
All time
League superlatives
The Oracle
oren
Best draft grade · A+ · +7.2/pick
The Sniper
Josh
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +162.4
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +201
Boom or Bust
Josh
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 37
Steady Hand
Cooper
Most consistent picks · σ 15
Dead Money
jon
Worst first-round return · −217
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | WR | RB | RB | RB | RB | K |
| sam | RB | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | DEF | DEF | QB | K |
| adam.arbess | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | K | WR | DEF | WR |
| David | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | QB | RB | DEF | K |
| jon | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | K | WR |
| Brady | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | WR | WR | K |
| Ben | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | K | DEF |
| Josh | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | RB | WR | WR | RB | DEF | DEF |
| oren | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | RB | RB | DEF | QB |
| adam | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | RB | RB | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| Al | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | QB | TE | K | DEF | WR | |
| Benjamin | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | TE | WR | RB | DEF | TE | QB | WR | K | WR | TE | |
| Cooper | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | WR | K | TE | QB | RB | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |