The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive5 drafts graded2021–2025 · Snake
1,000Picks
A+
Josh
2021 · 15 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
20%
beat the slot
Smashes
20%
top 15% picks
Busts
7%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+166
useful pts
Per pick
+11.1
Best pick
+162
Cooper Kupp
01
Diagnosis
Josh's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Josh gets better
The film room
The Cooper Kupp read
Taken at pick 40 in 2021, he returned +162.4 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
6 WR picks returned 2.48× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
RB is your blind spot
5 RB picks returned 71% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Antonio Gibson still hurts
Pick 16 in 2021 came in −14.0 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.41×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
0.71×
5 picks · 0% beat slot
WR
2.48×
6 picks · 33% beat slot
TE
0.56×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
K
0.49×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
DEF
0.24×
1 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+205
4 picks · 50% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+2
5 picks · 20% hit
Late (R10+)
−40
6 picks · 0% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+162
Cooper Kupp
2021 · Rd 4 · pick 40 · 197.4 useful vs 35.0 expected
WR+58
Davante Adams
2021 · Rd 1 · pick 9 · 122.9 useful vs 64.8 expected
QB+26
Dak Prescott
2021 · Rd 6 · pick 64 · 45.0 useful vs 18.7 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−14
Antonio Gibson
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 16 · 37.4 useful vs 51.4 expected
RB−9
Zack Moss
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 88 · 0.0 useful vs 9.3 expected
RB−8
Carlos Hyde
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 129 · 0.0 useful vs 8.4 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-26
Christian McCaffrey
Al
1.02-9
Dalvin Cook
Brady
1.03-15
Alvin Kamara
adam
1.04-18
Ezekiel Elliott
jon
1.05-1
Derrick Henry
Jack
1.06-56
Saquon Barkley
oren
1.07-55
Nick Chubb
adam.arbess
1.08+47
Travis Kelce
sam
1.09+58
Davante Adams
Josh
1.10+11
Aaron Jones Sr.
Cooper
1.11+60
Austin Ekeler
David
1.12+43
Tyreek Hill
Ben
2.01-49
Jonathan Taylor
Ben
2.02-52
Stefon Diggs
David
2.03-29
DK Metcalf
Cooper
2.04-14
Antonio Gibson
Josh
2.05-38
DeAndre Hopkins
adam.arbess
2.06-36
Calvin Ridley
Jack
2.07+28
Najee Harris
oren
2.08-21
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
sam
2.09-8
Justin Jefferson
jon
2.10-1
A.J. Brown
adam
2.11-2
Darren Waller
Brady
2.12+49
Joe Mixon
Al
3.01-20
Terry McLaurin
Al
3.02+28
Keenan Allen
Brady
3.03-30
Chris Carson
adam
3.04-30
Allen Robinson
jon
3.05+35
Patrick Mahomes
sam
3.06+32
CeeDee Lamb
oren
3.07+21
David Montgomery
Jack
3.08+75
Josh Allen
adam.arbess
3.09-2
James Robinson
Josh
3.10+24
Mike Evans
Cooper
3.11+51
George Kittle
David
3.12-11
Amari Cooper
Ben
4.01+14
D'Andre Swift
Ben
4.02-32
Miles Sanders
David
4.03+16
Lamar Jackson
Cooper
4.04+162
Cooper Kupp
Josh
4.05-37
Robert Woods
adam.arbess
4.06+17
Tyler Lockett
Jack
4.07+29
Chris Godwin Jr.
oren
4.08+28
Diontae Johnson
sam
4.09+0
DJ Moore
jon
4.10-34
Julio Jones
adam
4.11+1
Kyler Murray
Brady
4.12-9
T.J. Hockenson
Al
5.01-28
Jerry Jeudy
Al
5.02-21
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Brady
5.03+6
Kyle Pitts Sr.
adam
5.04-27
Damien Harris
jon
5.05-5
Adam Thielen
sam
5.06-14
Mark Andrews
oren
5.07-23
Gus Edwards
Jack
5.08-23
Myles Gaskin
adam.arbess
5.09-2
Josh Jacobs
Josh
5.10-22
Mike Davis
Cooper
5.11-20
Tee Higgins
David
5.12-12
Odell Beckham Jr.
Ben
6.01+26
Aaron Rodgers
Ben
6.02-17
Brandon Aiyuk
David
6.03-1
Chase Claypool
Cooper
6.04+26
Dak Prescott
Josh
6.05-18
Javonte Williams
adam.arbess
6.06-7
Russell Wilson
Jack
6.07-18
Robbie Chosen
oren
6.08+9
Chase Edmonds
sam
6.09-17
Logan Thomas
jon
6.10-15
Kareem Hunt
adam
6.11+5
Courtland Sutton
Brady
6.12+77
Justin Herbert
Al
7.01-13
Ronald Jones
Al
7.02-13
Raheem Mostert
Brady
7.03-2
Melvin Gordon III
adam
7.04+38
Jalen Hurts
jon
7.05-4
Tyler Boyd
sam
7.06-11
JuJu Smith-Schuster
oren
7.07-12
Trey Sermon
Jack
7.08-10
Robert Tonyan
adam.arbess
7.09-5
Tyler Higbee
Josh
7.10+28
Dallas Goedert
Cooper
7.11-10
Kenny Golladay
David
7.12+10
Corey Davis
Ben
8.01-11
James Conner
Ben
8.02-11
Leonard Fournette
David
8.03+4
Rams
Cooper
8.04-9
Zack Moss
Josh
8.05+32
Michael Pittman Jr.
adam.arbess
8.06+27
Antonio Brown
Jack
8.07-9
Michael Thomas
oren
8.08+49
Brandin Cooks
sam
8.09-9
Kenyan Drake
jon
8.10+84
Deebo Samuel Sr.
adam
8.11+2
DeVonta Smith
Brady
8.12+7
Ja'Marr Chase
Al
9.01-9
AJ Dillon
Al
9.02-9
Marquez Callaway
Brady
9.03-9
DJ Chark
adam
9.04-8
Curtis Samuel
jon
9.05-8
Tyrell Williams
sam
9.06-8
Sony Michel
oren
9.07-8
Michael Carter
Jack
9.08-8
Jamaal Williams
adam.arbess
9.09-8
Laviska Shenault Jr.
Josh
9.10-7
Devin Singletary
Cooper
9.11+73
Tom Brady
David
9.12-6
Will Fuller V
Ben
10.01+14
Noah Fant
Ben
10.02-1
Mike Williams
David
10.03-7
Michael Gallup
Cooper
10.04-7
Jakobi Meyers
Josh
10.05-6
Ryan Tannehill
adam.arbess
10.06-6
Matthew Stafford
Jack
10.07-2
Kirk Cousins
oren
10.08-6
J.D. McKissic
sam
10.09-5
Nyheim Miller-Hines
jon
10.10+37
Jaylen Waddle
adam
10.11-7
Phillip Lindsay
Brady
10.12-8
Jarvis Landry
Al
11.01+25
Justin Tucker
Al
11.02+10
Alexander Mattison
Brady
11.030
Joe Burrow
adam
11.04-2
Hollywood Brown
jon
11.05-8
Jamison Crowder
sam
11.06-8
Trevor Lawrence
oren
11.07-8
Mike Gesicki
Jack
11.08-8
Darnell Mooney
adam.arbess
11.09-8
Carlos Hyde
Josh
11.10-2
Harrison Butker
Cooper
11.11+1
Younghoe Koo
David
11.120
DeVante Parker
Ben
12.01+26
Buccaneers
Ben
12.02-8
Marvin Jones Jr.
David
12.03-8
Jonnu Smith
Cooper
12.04-6
Commanders
Josh
12.05-9
Gerald Everett
adam.arbess
12.06-3
Tony Pollard
Jack
12.07+8
Steelers
oren
12.08+13
Ravens
sam
12.09+5
49ers
jon
12.10-8
James White
adam
12.11-8
Elijah Moore
Brady
12.12-8
Austin Hooper
Al
13.01+41
Bills
Al
13.02+1
Colts
Brady
13.03+18
Tyler Bass
adam
13.04-9
Henry Ruggs III
jon
13.05-4
Sterling Shepard
sam
13.06-8
David Johnson
oren
13.07+4
Browns
Jack
13.08+6
Greg Zuerlein
adam.arbess
13.09-7
Mecole Hardman Jr.
Josh
13.10-7
Matt Ryan
Cooper
13.11-8
Jameis Winston
David
13.12-6
Randall Cobb
Ben
14.01-8
Cole Beasley
Ben
14.02-7
Boston Scott
David
14.03-7
Tevin Coleman
Cooper
14.04-7
Russell Gage Jr.
Josh
14.05-7
Nelson Agholor
adam.arbess
14.06-5
Rashod Bateman
Jack
14.07-7
Deshaun Watson
oren
14.08-7
Trey Lance
sam
14.09+1
Rob Gronkowski
jon
14.10+71
Patriots
adam
14.11-7
Bryan Edwards
Brady
14.12-1
Emmanuel Sanders
Al
15.01-7
Malcolm Brown
Al
15.02-7
Jason Sanders
Brady
15.03-7
Rondale Moore
adam
15.04+6
Rodrigo Blankenship
jon
15.05+13
Ryan Succop
sam
15.06+40
Daniel Carlson
oren
15.07-6
Jason Myers
Jack
15.08-7
Chiefs
adam.arbess
15.09-4
Robbie Gould
Josh
15.10-7
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Cooper
15.11+12
Broncos
David
15.12+25
Matt Gay
Ben
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01JoshA+
- 02samA
- 03adamA-
- 04AlB+
- 05BenB
- 06DavidB-
- 07orenC+
- 08CooperC
- 09BradyC-
- 10JackD+
- 11jonD
- 12adam.arbessF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Josh
Best draft grade · A+ · +11.1/pick
The Sniper
Josh
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +162.4
Bargain Hunter
adam
Most value from rounds 10+ · +110
Boom or Bust
Josh
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Brady
Most consistent picks · σ 11
Dead Money
oren
Worst first-round return · −57
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.46
The draft matters, but it isn't destiny. Based on 54 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Josh (A+) | 2nd | sam (draft #3 of 10) |
| 2024 | adam.arbess (A+) | 1st | adam.arbess (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2023 | oren (A+) | 4th | Josh (draft #2 of 10) |
| 2022 | oren (A+) | 10th | adam (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2021 | Josh (A+) | 3rd | adam.arbess (draft #12 of 12) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al | RB | RB | WR | TE | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | K | TE | DEF | WR | RB |
| Brady | RB | TE | WR | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K |
| adam | RB | WR | RB | WR | TE | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | QB | RB | K | DEF | WR |
| jon | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | WR | TE | K |
| Jack | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | QB | TE | RB | DEF | WR | K |
| oren | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | WR | WR | WR | RB | QB | QB | DEF | RB | QB | K |
| adam.arbess | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | RB | QB | WR | TE | K | WR | DEF |
| sam | TE | RB | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | DEF | WR | QB | K |
| Josh | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | QB | TE | RB | WR | WR | RB | DEF | WR | WR | K |
| Cooper | RB | WR | WR | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | WR | K | TE | QB | RB | WR |
| David | RB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | QB | WR | K | WR | QB | RB | DEF |
| Ben | WR | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | TE | WR | DEF | WR | WR | K |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 33 (≈ R4) | 92 | 27–164 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 67 | 1–169 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 71 | 1–178 |
| TE | pick 16 (≈ R2) | 82 | 5–180 |
| K | pick 121 (≈ R13) | 147 | 107–180 |
| DEF | pick 114 (≈ R12) | 145 | 87–179 |